129 3rd St · Dexter, KY 42020

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Fair condition 1.00 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLERS - ALL OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED. Charming all-brick 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with a 1-car garage, featuring original hardwood floors throughout the living room, hallway, and all bedrooms — a perfect blend of character and opportunity. New roof in 2024. Nestled in a peaceful country setting, this property offers peace and privacy while presenting excellent investment potential. Bring your ideas to update and add value.

Key facts

• New roof
• 1 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW ROOF
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING
• EXCELLENT INVESTMENT POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: 1-acre lot

Interior

• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#425 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Calloway County (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #19 of 165 in KY (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Calloway County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Calloway County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.17%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,145
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 3rd St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,565 (0%)	0mo	$90,000	$58	100
1558 Almo Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+3%)	9mo	$215,000	$133	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $63,110
• Equity at exit: $89,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.41×
• Total profit: $179,269
• Equity at exit: $194,084

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42020

• Home prices YoY: 10.4%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $99,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-05-11
   price $99,900
8. 2026-04-20
   price $115,000
9. 2026-03-31
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$2,002
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$31
• After-tax cash flow: $1,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This charming all-brick home with original hardwood floors and a new roof in 2024 requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Brick siding — Some discoloration
• Minor Hardwood floors — Some wear
• Minor Painted walls — Some scuff marks

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace water heater — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs
• Both Replace flooring — Freshens up the interior and improves comfort
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances the look and feel of the home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Brick siding · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Hardwood floors · Some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Painted walls · Some scuff marks	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace water heater — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Freshens up the interior and improves comfort ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances the look and feel of the home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calloway County
• NCES district ID: 2100870
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $38,849
• Composite: 38.39/100
• National rank: #4208
• State rank: #19 of 165 in KY

Livability — Dexter

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #20528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,215

Population outlook (Calloway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,071 people
• By 2030: 42,608 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 45,435 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 48,501 · +18.1%
• By 2075: 56,481 · +37.5%
• By 2100: 63,271 · +54.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Calloway

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.2% · R 68.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.44%
• Current HPI: 269.0871
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $99,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $115,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $125,000 WKRMLS