45814 Lake St · Lake Kathryn, FL 32767

$184,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 306 Days on market

Built 2024 8,025 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile home on lot is uninhabitable and needs to be removed and replaced. The property was bought as a fix and flip by an out-of-state investor who has not been able to get down and do the work. If you have the time and ability this is an excellent investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT SYSTEMS
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.18 acres (75 x 107); Total living area 936 square feet
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Under construction (projected completion July 31, 2025); One story; Southeast facing; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built as new construction; Crawlspace foundation; Builder: LIVE OAK; Model: FLASH
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features specified

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-347/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#896 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Creek Charter School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 630 students, 100% FRL, charter); Umatilla Middle School (math 58% / reading 46%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 595 students, 57% FRL); Umatilla High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 861 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $184k implies a 557% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,616 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $98,309
• Equity at exit: $165,762

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $290,835
• Equity at exit: $357,472

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32767

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,406 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,178/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $178,890

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $23	+0% $-29	+5% $-81	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-84	+0% $-29	+5% $27	+10% $82
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $18	base $-29	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,000 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,000 Active 305 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,000 Active 304 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,000 Active 303 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,000 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,000 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,000 Active 296 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,000 Active 295 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $184,000 Active 292 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,000 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,000 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,000 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,000 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-02-02
    status Active
15. 2025-12-06
    status Pending
16. 2025-06-20
    listed $184,000 Active
17. 2025-03-24
    historical
18. 2025-01-27
    price $198,000
19. 2024-12-03
    price $210,000
20. 2024-05-07
    listed $205,000 Active
21. 2023-03-02
    soldstatus $28,000 Closed 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (273 chars)

    Mobile home on lot is uninhabitable and needs to be removed and replaced. The property was bought as a fix and flip by an out-of-state investor who has not been able to get down and do the work. If you have the time and ability this is an excellent investment opportunity.

22. 2022-12-31
    status Pending 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (273 chars)

    Mobile home on lot is uninhabitable and needs to be removed and replaced. The property was bought as a fix and flip by an out-of-state investor who has not been able to get down and do the work. If you have the time and ability this is an excellent investment opportunity.

23. 2022-11-14
    listed $35,000 Active 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (273 chars)

    Mobile home on lot is uninhabitable and needs to be removed and replaced. The property was bought as a fix and flip by an out-of-state investor who has not been able to get down and do the work. If you have the time and ability this is an excellent investment opportunity.

24. 2022-06-22
    soldstatus $29,500 Closed
25. 2022-06-16
    status Pending
26. 2022-05-31
    status Active
27. 2022-05-18
    status Pending
28. 2022-05-11
    price $34,000
29. 2022-05-06
    listed $36,000 Active
30. 2007-05-24
    historical
31. 2007-04-04
    listed $39,500
32. 1992-09-01
    soldstatus $9,000
33. 1981-09-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,178 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,527 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$349/yr (+$29/mo · 29.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$1,178
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,350
• − Management: −$1,350
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$3,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$860
• After-tax cash flow: $513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kathryn

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #26433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Kathryn, FL
• Population (ZIP): 2,839

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.00%
• Current HPI: 372.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1433.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Listed $184,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-03 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-07 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-02 Sold (MLS) $28,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-14 Listed $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-22 Sold (MLS) $29,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-11 Price Changed $34,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-06 Listed $36,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-04 Listed $39,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records
• 1981-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,178 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.