4725 W Hillcrest Ave · Dayton, OH 45406

$102,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1953 6,251 sqft lot $130/sqft · 18% above area Est $88k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully refreshed 2-bedroom, 1-bath ranch is the perfect place to start your homeownership journey. With a blend of charm and updates, this move-in ready gem offers comfortable living in a convenient location. Inside, you’ll find warm wood floors, brand-new carpet, fresh paint throughout, and an updated bathroom. The eat-in kitchen shines with newly installed cabinets, making it a great space for daily meals or weekend cooking sessions. Enjoy mornings on the front porch or start a small garden in the flower bed area near the front of the home. The long driveway offers plenty of parking, and the oversized 1-car detached garage adds extra storage or workshop space. Tucked in a location close to grocery stores, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home combines comfort, function, and charm—all at an approachable price.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Eat-in kitchen
• Long driveway

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEWLY INSTALLED CABINETS
• FRONT PORCH
• FLOWER BED AREA
• LONG DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $103k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $711 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $103k implies a 313% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $90,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,533
• List price: $102,900
• Delta: 17.56%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4715 Greenwich Village Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0	756 (-4%)	6mo	$21,500	$28	76
2612 N Gettysburg Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	780 (-2%)	3mo	$28,200	$36	67
4509 Queens Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	720 (-9%)	0mo	$56,000	$78	57
4445 Prescott Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	888 (+12%)	7mo	$40,000	$45	51
4637 Waymire Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	906 (+14%)	8mo	$65,000	$72	49
4424 Genesee Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	720 (-9%)	12mo	$47,000	$65	46
4288 Redonda Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	864 (+9%)	4mo	$125,000	$145	46
5304 W Riverview Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	720 (-9%)	7mo	$28,000	$39	45
4466 Gatewood Pl	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+9%)	5mo	$77,400	$90	44
3678 Wilmore St	0.75mi	3/1.5 (+1)	864 (+9%)	3mo	$131,900	$153	41
3748 Saint James Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+9%)	6mo	$92,500	$107	37
3691 Marlin Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+9%)	12mo	$35,640	$41	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-8,720
• Equity at exit: $15,343

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,619
• Equity at exit: $8,897

Cash invested: $28,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45406

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$540
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $490/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $789

Max offer price $102,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,725
• Closing costs: $3,087
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5112 W Hillcrest Ave Unit 1 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	972	$700	$0.72	23d	1	0.26mi
2002 Val Vista Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	975	$1,095	$1.12	21d	1	0.30mi
2014 Hickorydale Dr Unit 2016 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	43d	1	0.37mi
4446 Waymire Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	21d	1	0.39mi
4629 Queens Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	0.47mi
2675-2727 N Gettysburg Ave Unit 2727-22 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	650	$600	$0.92	43d	1	0.49mi
2675-2727 N Gettysburg Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	650	$600	$0.92	14d	22	0.49mi
2408 Falmouth Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	806	$950	$1.18	23d	1	0.57mi
2414 Hancock Ave Unit 2418 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	43d	1	0.65mi
4113 Crest Dr Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	650	$650	$1.00	43d	1	0.67mi
2501 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	605	$850	$1.40	43d	1	0.75mi
2609 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	2d	1	0.77mi
3711 Pittsburg Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	43d	1	0.91mi
4132 Natchez Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	991	$1,250	$1.26	3d	1	0.92mi
1720 Kings Mill Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	975	$925	$0.95	23d	1	1.06mi
1732 Harold Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	805	$925	$1.15	43d	1	1.10mi
3858 Haney Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$825	$0.97	2d	1	1.13mi
3537 Otterbein Ave Unit d Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$925	$1.03	43d	1	1.13mi
3650 Otterbein Ave Unit 3650 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	2d	1	1.15mi
3652 Otterbein Ave Unit 3652 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	2d	1	1.15mi
4527 Channing Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	946	$1,600	$1.69	43d	1	1.17mi
3311 Otterbein Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1004	$1,300	$1.29	11d	1	1.26mi
3552 Stanford Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	23d	1	1.31mi
3552 Stanford Pl Unit 3552 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	43d	1	1.31mi
4365 Parkway Dr Trotwood, OH	2.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	43d	1	1.32mi
2257 Hepburn Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	600	$695	$1.16	43d	1	1.37mi
2109 Victoria Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	3d	1	1.39mi
4161 Mapleleaf Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	2d	1	1.41mi
4576 Live Oak Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	43d	1	1.42mi
1934 Tennyson Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	675	$700	$1.04	43d	1	1.43mi
1982 Victoria Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	675	$700	$1.04	43d	1	1.45mi
4425 Thompson Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,150	$1.33	2d	1	1.46mi
1330 W Hillcrest Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	525	$825	$1.57	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $102,900 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $102,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $102,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $102,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $102,900 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $102,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $102,900 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $102,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $102,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $102,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $102,900 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $102,900 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $102,900 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $102,900 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $102,900 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-01-15
    listed $102,900 Active 854-char remark

    Show marketing remark (854 chars)

    This beautifully refreshed 2-bedroom, 1-bath ranch is the perfect place to start your homeownership journey. With a blend of charm and updates, this move-in ready gem offers comfortable living in a convenient location. Inside, you’ll find warm wood floors, brand-new carpet, fresh paint throughout, and an updated bathroom. The eat-in kitchen shines with newly installed cabinets, making it a great space for daily meals or weekend cooking sessions. Enjoy mornings on the front porch or start a small garden in the flower bed area near the front of the home. The long driveway offers plenty of parking, and the oversized 1-car detached garage adds extra storage or workshop space. Tucked in a location close to grocery stores, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home combines comfort, function, and charm—all at an approachable price.

17. 2025-12-04
    historical
18. 2025-07-30
    price $102,900
19. 2025-07-09
    price $103,900
20. 2025-06-25
    price $104,500
21. 2025-06-06
    listed $104,900 Active
22. 1992-12-09
    soldstatus $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,048 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$557/yr (+$46/mo · 113.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,764
• − Property taxes: −$490
• − Insurance: −$514
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$909
• − Management: −$909
• − Depreciation: −$2,993
• Taxable loss: −$213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$51
• After-tax cash flow: $1,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,991
• Household income: $41,796
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1504.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.75%
• Current HPI: 197.1302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+313.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $102,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $102,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $103,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $104,500 Dayton MLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $104,900 Dayton MLS
• 1992-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $24,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $490 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.