614 Mill St · Ironton, OH 45638

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1900 2,614 sqft lot $60/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

POTENTIAL INVESTMENT RENTAL - This property features a two bedroom, one bath home with full front porch and a detached garage that includes a private studio apartment above. Also a fantastic opportunity for a personalized starter home with just some TLC.

Key facts

• Full front porch
• 2,614 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• FULL FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE STUDIO APARTMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Composition roof
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Master bedroom located downstairs; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($862 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 5.1% in Ironton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#354 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Ironton City School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #382 of 656 in OH (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.67%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,200
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -54.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
195 Orchard Holw	0.63mi	2/1.0	872 (+4%)	3mo	$15,000	$17	62
930 N 3rd St	0.39mi	2/2.0	901 (+7%)	15mo	$119,000	$132	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $11,745
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $35,862
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45638

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $862 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,045/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $469

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $50,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $50,000 Active 254-char remark
4. 2022-12-30
   soldstatus $120,000
5. 2010-03-04
   soldstatus $33,000
6. 2008-10-16
   soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,045 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,045 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,045
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$828
• − Management: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $3,143
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$754
• After-tax cash flow: $2,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ironton City School District
• NCES district ID: 3904414
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $32,999
• Composite: 46.13/100
• National rank: #2505
• State rank: #382 of 656 in OH

Livability — Ironton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #5718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ironton, OH
• County: Lawrence · 57,020 people
• Metro: Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,921
• Household income: $49,544
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.7

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,915 people
• By 2030: 55,650 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 50,523 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 45,103 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 32,441 · -44.0%
• By 2100: 21,754 · -62.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.4% · R 74.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.2pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.00%
• Current HPI: 196.7459
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $50,000 AABOR
• 2022-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,045 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.