Harper Plan · Balm, FL 33598

$335,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily · 282 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This all-concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen overlooking the living area and back-porch. The kitchen comes with all stainless-steel appliances including a refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave. The primary suite is located right off the kitchen with an ensuite double sink bathroom and large walk-in closet. Towards the back of the home, you will find three additional bedrooms that share a second bathroom. The laundry room comes equipped with an included washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Large walk-in closet
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ENSUITE DOUBLE SINK BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• INCLUDED WASHER AND DRYER

🏗️ New construction. The $335,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $343,671.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $336k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Balm — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 1030 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 130d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $280,652 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.97%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,671
• List price: $335,990
• Delta: -2.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15022 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,498 (-10%)	0mo	$310,000	$207	71
15026 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,498 (-10%)	0mo	$306,000	$204	70
14927 Emerson Field St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-7%)	4mo	$310,700	$200	68
15012 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,882 (+13%)	0mo	$335,000	$178	68
15033 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,498 (-10%)	2mo	$309,990	$207	67
15032 Coltman Hill Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-6%)	1mo	$290,000	$186	66
15023 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,882 (+13%)	3mo	$355,990	$189	64
15024 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,882 (+13%)	3mo	$357,990	$190	63
15035 Coltman Hill Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-6%)	3mo	$294,990	$189	62
15037 Coltman Hill Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-6%)	3mo	$315,490	$202	62
15029 Crosshall Stream Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,882 (+13%)	3mo	$364,240	$194	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-64,440
• Equity at exit: $61,336

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-92,363
• Equity at exit: $47,346

Cash invested: $96,228 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $334,950 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 33 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 1030
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,802
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$430 /mo · $5,155/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,006

Max offer price $320,825

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $-39	+0% $-158	+5% $-277	+10% $-395
Rent	-10% $-380	-5% $-269	+0% $-158	+5% $-47	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-70	base $-158	+0.5pp $-247	+1.0pp $-338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,918
• Closing costs: $10,310
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15007 Coltman Hill Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,550	$1.33	165d	1	0.33mi
13191 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	129d	1	0.89mi
13181 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	10d	1	0.90mi
13124 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1841	$2,650	$1.44	10d	1	0.98mi
13095 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,300	$1.19	158d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $335,990 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $335,990 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $335,990 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $335,990 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $335,990 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $335,990 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $335,990 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $335,990 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $335,990 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $335,990 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $335,990 Active 271 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $335,990 Active 270 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $335,990 Active 269 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $335,990 Active 268 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $335,990 Active 267 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $335,990 Active 266 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $335,990 Active 265 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $335,990 Active 264 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $335,990 Active 263 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $335,990 Active 262 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $335,990 Active 261 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $335,990 Active 260 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $335,990 Active 259 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $335,990 Active 258 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $335,990 Active 257 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $335,990 Active 256 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $335,990 Active 255 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $335,990 Active 254 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $335,990 Active 253 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $335,990 Active 252 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $335,990 Active 251 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $335,990 Active 250 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $335,990 Active 249 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $335,990 Active 248 DOM
35. 2026-10-03
    days on market $335,990 Active 246 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $335,990 Active 245 DOM
37. 2026-10-01
    days on market $335,990 Active 244 DOM
38. 2026-09-30
    days on market $335,990 Active 243 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $335,990 Active 242 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $335,990 Active 241 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $335,990 Active 240 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $335,990 Active 238 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $335,990 Active 237 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $335,990 Active 236 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $335,990 Active 235 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $335,990 Active 234 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $335,990 Active 233 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $335,990 Active 232 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $335,990 Active 231 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $335,990 Active 230 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,251
• − Property taxes: −$5,155
• − Insurance: −$1,718
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,694
• − Management: −$2,694
• − Depreciation: −$9,998
• Taxable loss: −$7,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,880
• After-tax cash flow: $-15/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern appliances and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior siding and replacing the window blinds to enhance its curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace window blinds — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wimauma Elementary School F FL #1,882/2,144 Nat'l #26,438/41,679 Middle Shields Middle School F FL #486/571 Nat'l #9,545/14,009 High Lennard High School F FL #328/667 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $335,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $333,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Listed $331,990 Zillow