5042 Cumberland Ct #18 · Salem, OR 97306

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · Manufactured public records · 198 Days on market

Built 1987 $76/sqft · 31% below area Est $145k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER. Sale fail no fault of home. Prime location at the end of a cul-de-sac and right next to a peaceful walking path! This home offers newer exterior paint, a large open living room, and a smart layout with the primary bedroom separated from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The spacious primary suite features double closets, a large double vanity, a jetted tub, and a separate shower. The home also includes a heat pump for efficient heating and cooling. Enjoy a well-maintained, fully fenced backyard complete with a deck, firepit and two storage sheds. The property also offers a spacious covered porch and a carport for convenient parking. park rent is 1,030.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Double closets
• Newer exterior paint

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• WALKING PATH
• NEWER EXTERIOR PAINT
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SEPARATED
• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• DOUBLE VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $100k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.57%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,000
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -31.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5030 Cumberland Ct SE #24	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,323 (+1%)	1mo	$143,000	$108	95
205 Boone Rd SE #37	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-1%)	2mo	$147,000	$113	86
205 Boone Rd SE #49	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+11%)	21mo	$110,000	$76	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $32,705
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $84,800
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97306

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $714/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $792

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
190 Boone Rd SE Salem, OR	2.0–3.0	1.5	1030	$1,750	$1.70	14d	1	0.17mi
4966 Liberty Rd S Unit 128 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	975	$1,295	$1.33	23d	1	0.19mi
4966 Liberty Rd S Unit 118 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	975	$1,295	$1.33	44d	1	0.19mi
5085 Kaufman Loop SE Unit 5085 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,750	$1.72	44d	1	0.21mi
4958 Liberty Rd S Unit 91 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	975	$1,295	$1.33	44d	1	0.21mi
1370 Boone Rd S Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,725	$1.57	23d	1	0.25mi
4892 Liberty Rd S Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$1,475	$1.83	14d	12	0.31mi
4790 Liberty Rd S Unit 31 Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1040	$2,000	$1.92	44d	1	0.36mi
4873 Skyline Rd S Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1028	$1,599	$1.55	14d	1	0.37mi
4752 Liberty Rd S Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,745	$1.73	14d	6	0.41mi
1589 Distinctive Ct S Unit 1585 Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,750	$1.61	14d	1	0.44mi
1073 Hermitage Way S Unit 42 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,295	$1.23	23d	1	0.51mi
1097 Hermitage Way S Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,295	$1.23	23d	1	0.52mi
122 Hrubetz Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,749	$2.14	23d	1	0.52mi
5162 Lone Oak Rd SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1072	$2,095	$1.95	23d	1	0.53mi
450 Lori Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,395	$1.70	14d	1	0.58mi
2108 Red Oak Dr S Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	915	$1,195	$1.31	14d	9	0.67mi
1069 Big Fir Pl S Unit 1071 Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1350	$2,075	$1.54	44d	1	0.71mi
5711 Honey Bee St S Unit 5711 Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1350	$2,075	$1.54	14d	1	0.72mi
2217 Juliet Ct S Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1802	$2,795	$1.55	44d	1	0.77mi
1794 Rialto Ave S Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$2,095	$2.01	23d	1	0.77mi
2142 Maplewood Dr S Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,995	$1.69	14d	1	0.80mi
5715 Red Leaf Dr S Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,995	$2.09	14d	15	0.86mi
5522 Beechwood Ct S Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,295	$1.68	44d	1	0.90mi
4078 Liberty Rd S Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,325	$1.32	44d	5	0.95mi
5534 Skyline Rd S Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,322	$1.75	14d	6	1.00mi
4883 7th Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1012	$2,000	$1.98	44d	1	1.00mi
636 Browning Ave S Unit 636 Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,950	$1.77	23d	1	1.02mi
5131 Sycan Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,250	$1.74	44d	1	1.03mi
5699 Waln Creek Ct S Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,190	$1.74	14d	1	1.05mi
5577 7th Ave SE Salem, OR	4.0	3.0	1808	$2,450	$1.36	23d	1	1.06mi
4860 8th Ave SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,795	$1.83	23d	1	1.17mi
4685 Sunnyside Rd SE Unit 4689-208 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	950	$1,228	$1.29	44d	1	1.21mi
5455 Norma Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,595	$1.55	44d	1	1.21mi
4890 Sunnyside Rd SE Unit 4894 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	995	$1,495	$1.50	14d	1	1.22mi
5205 9th Ct SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1140	$2,195	$1.93	14d	1	1.25mi
4810 Sunnyside Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0	737	$1,695	$2.30	14d	1	1.27mi
101 Dell Villa Dr SE Unit 101 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	44d	1	1.27mi
3758 Mica View Ct SE Unit 3729 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1165	$1,599	$1.37	44d	1	1.38mi
3758 Mica View Ct SE Unit 3750 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1165	$1,565	$1.34	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $100,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 188 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 187 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 179 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    price $110,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Sale fail no fault of home. Prime location at the end of a cul-de-sac and right next to a peaceful walking path! This home offers newer exterior paint, a large open living room, and a smart layout with the primary bedroom separated from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The spacious primary suite features double closets, a large double vanity, a jetted tub, and a separate shower. The home also includes a heat pump for efficient heating and cooling. Enjoy a well-maintained, fully fenced backyard complete with a deck, firepit and two storage sheds. The property also offers a spacious covered porch and a carport for convenient parking. park rent is 1,030.

17. 2026-03-19
    price $115,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Sale fail no fault of home. Prime location at the end of a cul-de-sac and right next to a peaceful walking path! This home offers newer exterior paint, a large open living room, and a smart layout with the primary bedroom separated from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The spacious primary suite features double closets, a large double vanity, a jetted tub, and a separate shower. The home also includes a heat pump for efficient heating and cooling. Enjoy a well-maintained, fully fenced backyard complete with a deck, firepit and two storage sheds. The property also offers a spacious covered porch and a carport for convenient parking. park rent is 1,030.

18. 2026-03-04
    status Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Sale fail no fault of home. Prime location at the end of a cul-de-sac and right next to a peaceful walking path! This home offers newer exterior paint, a large open living room, and a smart layout with the primary bedroom separated from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The spacious primary suite features double closets, a large double vanity, a jetted tub, and a separate shower. The home also includes a heat pump for efficient heating and cooling. Enjoy a well-maintained, fully fenced backyard complete with a deck, firepit and two storage sheds. The property also offers a spacious covered porch and a carport for convenient parking. park rent is 1,030.

19. 2026-02-17
    historical Active under Contract 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Sale fail no fault of home. Prime location at the end of a cul-de-sac and right next to a peaceful walking path! This home offers newer exterior paint, a large open living room, and a smart layout with the primary bedroom separated from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The spacious primary suite features double closets, a large double vanity, a jetted tub, and a separate shower. The home also includes a heat pump for efficient heating and cooling. Enjoy a well-maintained, fully fenced backyard complete with a deck, firepit and two storage sheds. The property also offers a spacious covered porch and a carport for convenient parking. park rent is 1,030.

20. 2026-01-30
    status Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Sale fail no fault of home. Prime location at the end of a cul-de-sac and right next to a peaceful walking path! This home offers newer exterior paint, a large open living room, and a smart layout with the primary bedroom separated from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The spacious primary suite features double closets, a large double vanity, a jetted tub, and a separate shower. The home also includes a heat pump for efficient heating and cooling. Enjoy a well-maintained, fully fenced backyard complete with a deck, firepit and two storage sheds. The property also offers a spacious covered porch and a carport for convenient parking. park rent is 1,030.

21. 2026-01-21
    historical Active under Contract 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Sale fail no fault of home. Prime location at the end of a cul-de-sac and right next to a peaceful walking path! This home offers newer exterior paint, a large open living room, and a smart layout with the primary bedroom separated from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The spacious primary suite features double closets, a large double vanity, a jetted tub, and a separate shower. The home also includes a heat pump for efficient heating and cooling. Enjoy a well-maintained, fully fenced backyard complete with a deck, firepit and two storage sheds. The property also offers a spacious covered porch and a carport for convenient parking. park rent is 1,030.

22. 2026-01-07
    price $119,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Sale fail no fault of home. Prime location at the end of a cul-de-sac and right next to a peaceful walking path! This home offers newer exterior paint, a large open living room, and a smart layout with the primary bedroom separated from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The spacious primary suite features double closets, a large double vanity, a jetted tub, and a separate shower. The home also includes a heat pump for efficient heating and cooling. Enjoy a well-maintained, fully fenced backyard complete with a deck, firepit and two storage sheds. The property also offers a spacious covered porch and a carport for convenient parking. park rent is 1,030.

23. 2025-12-11
    price $139,000 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Sale fail no fault of home. Prime location at the end of a cul-de-sac and right next to a peaceful walking path! This home offers newer exterior paint, a large open living room, and a smart layout with the primary bedroom separated from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The spacious primary suite features double closets, a large double vanity, a jetted tub, and a separate shower. The home also includes a heat pump for efficient heating and cooling. Enjoy a well-maintained, fully fenced backyard complete with a deck, firepit and two storage sheds. The property also offers a spacious covered porch and a carport for convenient parking. park rent is 1,030.

24. 2025-12-02
    listed $149,000 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER. Sale fail no fault of home. Prime location at the end of a cul-de-sac and right next to a peaceful walking path! This home offers newer exterior paint, a large open living room, and a smart layout with the primary bedroom separated from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The spacious primary suite features double closets, a large double vanity, a jetted tub, and a separate shower. The home also includes a heat pump for efficient heating and cooling. Enjoy a well-maintained, fully fenced backyard complete with a deck, firepit and two storage sheds. The property also offers a spacious covered porch and a carport for convenient parking. park rent is 1,030.

25. 1994-06-06
    soldstatus $37,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $714 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$256/yr (+$21/mo · 35.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$714
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,740
• − Management: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $8,549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,052
• After-tax cash flow: $7,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 34,383
• Household income: $101,753
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1437.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -335.25%
• Current HPI: 279.7875
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+190.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $110,000 WVMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $115,000 WVMLS
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2026-02-17 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2026-01-30 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2026-01-21 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $119,000 WVMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $139,000 WVMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $149,000 WVMLS
• 1994-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $37,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2019): $714 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.