Azalea Plan · Wellington, FL 33470

$494,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,758 sqft · Townhouse · 405 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Full-sized bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Open-plan layout

Tags

• OPEN-PLAN LAYOUT
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED LANAI
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL-SIZED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $491,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (new construction)
• Construction: Built as part of the Azalea plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,758

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Interior features: Plan: Azalea (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $471k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $412k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $412k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Wellington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#294 in FL, #4,986 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 405 days — a 12% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $411,759 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 405 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-70,535
• Equity at exit: $73,805

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $16,853
• Equity at exit: $42,798

Cash invested: $138,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33470

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 594
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,118 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$619 /mo · $7,425/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$865
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,330

Max offer price $470,699

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $3	+0% $-168	+5% $-339	+10% $-510
Rent	-10% $-493	-5% $-331	+0% $-168	+5% $-5	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $-42	base $-168	+0.5pp $-296	+1.0pp $-427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,748
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19546 Weathervane Way Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$3,750	$2.02	25d	1	0.17mi
19518 Weathervane Way Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1925	$3,800	$1.97	25d	1	0.18mi
19696 Weathervane Way Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$3,700	$2.00	19d	1	0.39mi
1200 Sterling Pine Pl Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.0	2373	$4,400	$1.85	25d	1	0.80mi
19179 Rolling Acres Rd Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.5	2262	$5,500	$2.43	25d	1	0.95mi
1248 Wandering Willow Way Unit 1248 Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.0	2615	$4,100	$1.57	18d	1	0.97mi
17234 Tawny Owl Trl Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.0	2396	$4,500	$1.88	3d	1	1.11mi
1261 Haywagon Trl Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1952	$3,350	$1.72	12d	1	1.12mi
19667 Rugged Trunk Trl Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1811	$3,475	$1.92	15d	1	1.14mi
1664 Wandering Willow Way Unit 1664 Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.0	2401	$4,250	$1.77	25d	1	1.14mi
17199 Tawny Owl Trl Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.0	2546	$4,400	$1.73	0d	1	1.14mi
1254 Tangled Orchard Trce Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1827	$3,325	$1.82	17d	1	1.15mi
1283 Tangled Orchard Trce Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1952	$3,400	$1.74	15d	1	1.17mi
1306 Tangled Orchard Trce Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1954	$3,200	$1.64	19d	1	1.23mi
1463 Heron Nook Rd Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.5	2373	$4,500	$1.90	25d	1	1.26mi
1933 Wandering Willow Way Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.0	2256	$4,470	$1.98	1d	1	1.27mi
1933 Wandering Willow Way Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.0	2256	$4,470	$1.98	22d	1	1.27mi
19479 Barn Swallow Way Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$3,200	$1.82	2d	1	1.32mi
1654 Hoot Owl Holw Unit 1654 Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.5	2311	$4,100	$1.77	5d	1	1.34mi
1662 Hoot Owl Holw Unit 1662 Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.5	2311	$4,100	$1.77	5d	1	1.35mi
1407 Tangled Orchard Trce Unit 184 Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.5	2311	$4,000	$1.73	25d	1	1.38mi
19472 Whispering Creek Rd Loxahatchee, FL	4.0	3.5	2311	$3,800	$1.64	8d	1	1.42mi
1742 Hoot Owl Holw Unit 1742 Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$3,400	$1.93	25d	1	1.42mi
19772 Whispering Creek Rd Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$3,500	$1.99	14d	1	1.45mi
19593 Whispering Creek Rd Loxahatchee, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$3,500	$1.99	8d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $494,990 Active 405 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $494,990 Active 404 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $494,990 Active 403 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $494,990 Active 402 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $494,990 Active 400 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $494,990 Active 396 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $494,990 Active 394 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $494,990 Active 391 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $494,990 Active 390 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $494,990 Active 388 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $494,990 Active 387 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,727
• − Property taxes: −$7,425
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,953
• − Management: −$3,953
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$10,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,525
• After-tax cash flow: $511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wellington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #4986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 60,184
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,610
• Household income: $122,163
• Rent vs Own: 5.4% rent · 94.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 43.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 16% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.68%
• Current HPI: 410.2689
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.68%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B