4 Union St · St. Johnsville, NY 13452

$175,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1880 5,227 sqft lot Est $207k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Wow, what a home! Built in 1880, this stunning residence is a true neighborhood showcase, beautifully situated on a large corner lot. Offering 2,184 square feet of living space, the home features a spacious double living room with a cozy pellet stove, a versatile pantry/office, an inviting kitchen, three generously sized bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. A large, dry basement provides excellent storage, while the charming front and side porches offer the perfect places to relax and enjoy the surroundings. Completing the property is a spacious two-car garage with plenty of room for vehicles, tools, and all your toys. Rich in character, generous in space, and full of timeless appeal, this exc

Key facts

• Double living room
• Pellet stove
• Pantry office

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• DOUBLE LIVING ROOM
• PELLET STOVE
• PANTRY OFFICE
• FRONT AND SIDE PORCHES
• DRY BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Two total parking spaces
• Security: Security lights; Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the first floor and one on the second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Full basement; Security lights, smoke detectors, and carbon monoxide detectors; Nine total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Basement utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-151 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Oppenheim-Ephratah-St. Johnsville CSD (rural): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #522 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,437 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,480
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 John St	0.12mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,170 (-1%)	9mo	$53,500	$25	81
28 S Division St	0.11mi	3/2.0	2,000 (-8%)	22mo	$190,000	$95	60
23 Failing Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,944 (-11%)	13mo	$189,000	$97	59
7694 State Highway 5	0.27mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,912 (-12%)	11mo	$125,025	$65	51
965 River Rd	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,058 (-6%)	14mo	$230,000	$112	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $85,756
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $260,153
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13452

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,282/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $148,397

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,620 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$338/yr (+$28/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,282
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,319
• − Management: −$1,319
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,863
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,167
• After-tax cash flow: $-640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oppenheim-Ephratah-St. Johnsville CSD
• NCES district ID: 3601107
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,730
• Composite: 34.25/100
• National rank: #5253
• State rank: #522 of 590 in NY

Livability — St. Johnsville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Johnsville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,850

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,683 people
• By 2030: 47,785 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 45,492 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 43,161 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 38,134 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 32,337 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.7) · D 35.6% · R 64.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -28.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.7 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+26.5 2012: R+4.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.23%
• Current HPI: 342.6782
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $175,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,282 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.