11 Center Rd · Twin Forks, NM 88317

$198,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 237 Days on market

Built 1994 0.32 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and unwind in this charming mountain retreat! This cute single-wide manufactured home sits on approximately 0.31 acres and offers an open-concept living and kitchen area, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The primary suite features a spacious bedroom and a large en-suite bath for added comfort and privacy. Two additional bedrooms and a full guest bath provide plenty of space for everyone to relax and enjoy the cool mountain air. Step outside to the covered deck and take in the peaceful surroundings among the tall pines of the Sacramento Mountains—ideal for outdoor entertaining or simply soaking in the tranquil evenings. Don’t miss this hidden gem! Be sure to check out the 3D tour and schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Open-concept living
• Tall pines

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• COVERED DECK
• TALL PINES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $469 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $198k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#74 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cloudcroft Municipal Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #12 of 95 in NM (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.15%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,323
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $36,022
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88317

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $411/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,462

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $581	-5% $525	+0% $469	+5% $187	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $306	-5% $388	+0% $469	+5% $550	+10% $631
Rate	-1.0pp $569	-0.5pp $519	base $469	+0.5pp $418	+1.0pp $365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $198,000 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $198,000 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $198,000 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,000 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,000 Active 226 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,000 Active 225 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $198,000 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $198,000 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,000 Active 220 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,000 Active 219 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,000 Active 218 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $198,000 Active 217 DOM
17. 2026-03-23
    price $198,000 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and unwind in this charming mountain retreat! This cute single-wide manufactured home sits on approximately 0.31 acres and offers an open-concept living and kitchen area, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The primary suite features a spacious bedroom and a large en-suite bath for added comfort and privacy. Two additional bedrooms and a full guest bath provide plenty of space for everyone to relax and enjoy the cool mountain air. Step outside to the covered deck and take in the peaceful surroundings among the tall pines of the Sacramento Mountains—ideal for outdoor entertaining or simply soaking in the tranquil evenings. Don’t miss this hidden gem! Be sure to check out the 3D tour and schedule your showing today.

18. 2026-03-15
    status Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and unwind in this charming mountain retreat! This cute single-wide manufactured home sits on approximately 0.31 acres and offers an open-concept living and kitchen area, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The primary suite features a spacious bedroom and a large en-suite bath for added comfort and privacy. Two additional bedrooms and a full guest bath provide plenty of space for everyone to relax and enjoy the cool mountain air. Step outside to the covered deck and take in the peaceful surroundings among the tall pines of the Sacramento Mountains—ideal for outdoor entertaining or simply soaking in the tranquil evenings. Don’t miss this hidden gem! Be sure to check out the 3D tour and schedule your showing today.

19. 2026-03-03
    status Pending 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and unwind in this charming mountain retreat! This cute single-wide manufactured home sits on approximately 0.31 acres and offers an open-concept living and kitchen area, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The primary suite features a spacious bedroom and a large en-suite bath for added comfort and privacy. Two additional bedrooms and a full guest bath provide plenty of space for everyone to relax and enjoy the cool mountain air. Step outside to the covered deck and take in the peaceful surroundings among the tall pines of the Sacramento Mountains—ideal for outdoor entertaining or simply soaking in the tranquil evenings. Don’t miss this hidden gem! Be sure to check out the 3D tour and schedule your showing today.

20. 2025-10-13
    listed $204,000 Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Escape the hustle and bustle of city life and unwind in this charming mountain retreat! This cute single-wide manufactured home sits on approximately 0.31 acres and offers an open-concept living and kitchen area, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The primary suite features a spacious bedroom and a large en-suite bath for added comfort and privacy. Two additional bedrooms and a full guest bath provide plenty of space for everyone to relax and enjoy the cool mountain air. Step outside to the covered deck and take in the peaceful surroundings among the tall pines of the Sacramento Mountains—ideal for outdoor entertaining or simply soaking in the tranquil evenings. Don’t miss this hidden gem! Be sure to check out the 3D tour and schedule your showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $411 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,173/yr (+$98/mo · 285.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$411
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable income: $2,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$592
• After-tax cash flow: $5,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cloudcroft Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500540
• Math proficiency: 28% —
• Reading proficiency: 48% —
• Median HH income: $45,499
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #9996
• State rank: #12 of 95 in NM

Livability — Twin Forks

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #15169

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,633

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 21% Iranian 18% Scottish 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.09%
• Current HPI: 209.5308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $198,000 OCAOR
• 2026-03-15 Relisted — OCAOR
• 2026-03-03 Pending — OCAOR
• 2025-10-13 Listed $204,000 OCAOR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $411 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.