1403 A W Fox St Unit 1403 B W Fox · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$300,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1960 Average condition 0.42 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY with this unique property! The front home is a charming 2-bedroom 1 bath residence, recently updated with new flooring, fresh paint, and thoughtful touches, making it turn-key ready for immediate occupancy or rental. Additionally, the small studio presents the potential for further cash flow through updates or can serve as a cozy guest room for visiting friends and family. This studio has not been updated. The back home, a well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is currently rented, offering consistent income and has also received updates it has a separate driveway and parking. The homes sit on 2 large lots with lots of room to grow. This property truly has it all, en

Key facts

• Large lots
• Turn-key ready
• Separate driveway

Tags

• TURN-KEY READY
• COZY GUEST ROOM
• SEPARATE DRIVEWAY
• LARGE LOTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space; 1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Multi-family residential (2–4 units); One story / One level
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($544/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Zoned schools: Early Childhood Education Center (170 students, 25% FRL); Carlsbad Sixth Grade Academy - Alta Vista Campus (705 students, 44% FRL); Carlsbad High (1,551 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 369 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,175 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,684
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-35,897
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $253	-5% $149	+0% $45	+5% $-58	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-61	+0% $45	+5% $151	+10% $257
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $122	base $45	+0.5pp $-32	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $300,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $300,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $300,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $300,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,574
• − Management: −$2,574
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,080
• After-tax cash flow: $1,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This property offers a moderate level of rehab with average condition across most areas. Upgrading the kitchen and bathrooms would significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — basic and in need of replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathrooms would increase both resale and rental value
• Both landscape and improve curb appeal — improving the landscaping would increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · basic and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathrooms would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both landscape and improve curb appeal — improving the landscaping would increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $300,000 NMMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $310,000 NMMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $315,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $312 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.