2703 Rustlers Roost Rd · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$134,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 525 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2013 Good condition 3,049 sqft lot $257/sqft · 8% above area Est $125k · 8% over $78/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Embrace the charm of mountain living in the active and friendly community of Pinecrest Lake, nestled in the scenic Rim Country of Heber-Overgaard. This affordable park model offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and outdoor lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a light and bright 1-bedroom, 1-bath home with a welcoming front living room and a versatile room addition--ideal as a family room, guest space, or extra sleeping area. Step outside to enjoy the spacious covered front deck, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing in the cool mountain air. The property also features a large shed with great potential for a workshop, or upgrade it with power and water for a private laundry space. A concrete pad and additional parking area provide plenty of room for vehicles and guests. The low-maintenance gravel landscaping makes this an easy lock-and-leave property for seasonal use or full-time living. Living in Pinecrest Lake means enjoying a well-kept, amenity-rich community with: Catch-and-release fishing pond Clubhouse for social gatherings and events Coin-operated laundry facilities Paved roads with year-round access HOA dues conveniently cover road maintenance, sewer, and water, making ownership simple and stress-free. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, seasonal retreat, or affordable full-time home, this property offers a relaxed lifestyle in one of Arizona's most desirable mountain communities.

Key facts

• Concrete pad
• Large shed
• 3,049 sq ft lot

Tags

• COMMUNITY OF PINECREST LAKE
• VERSATILE ROOM ADDITION
• SPACIOUS COVERED FRONT DECK
• LARGE SHED
• CONCRETE PAD
• ADDITIONAL PARKING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,853 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.94%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,123
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: 7.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2703 Rustlers Roost	0.00mi	2/1.0	525 (0%)	1mo	$123,000	$234	99
2206 Wrangler Way	0.04mi	1/1.0 (-1)	455 (-13%)	2mo	$144,900	$318	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-11,890
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,679
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$78
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $202	+0% $155	+5% $109	+10% $62
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $97	+0% $155	+5% $214	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $190	base $155	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $78 · $936/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerlandscaping

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1433 chars)

   Embrace the charm of mountain living in the active and friendly community of Pinecrest Lake, nestled in the scenic Rim Country of Heber-Overgaard. This affordable park model offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and outdoor lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a light and bright 1-bedroom, 1-bath home with a welcoming front living room and a versatile room addition--ideal as a family room, guest space, or extra sleeping area. Step outside to enjoy the spacious covered front deck, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing in the cool mountain air. The property also features a large shed with great potential for a workshop, or upgrade it with power and water for a private laundry space. A concrete pad and additional parking area provide plenty of room for vehicles and guests. The low-maintenance gravel landscaping makes this an easy lock-and-leave property for seasonal use or full-time living. Living in Pinecrest Lake means enjoying a well-kept, amenity-rich community with: Catch-and-release fishing pond Clubhouse for social gatherings and events Coin-operated laundry facilities Paved roads with year-round access HOA dues conveniently cover road maintenance, sewer, and water, making ownership simple and stress-free. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, seasonal retreat, or affordable full-time home, this property offers a relaxed lifestyle in one of Arizona's most desirable mountain communities.

2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1433 chars)

   Embrace the charm of mountain living in the active and friendly community of Pinecrest Lake, nestled in the scenic Rim Country of Heber-Overgaard. This affordable park model offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and outdoor lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a light and bright 1-bedroom, 1-bath home with a welcoming front living room and a versatile room addition--ideal as a family room, guest space, or extra sleeping area. Step outside to enjoy the spacious covered front deck, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing in the cool mountain air. The property also features a large shed with great potential for a workshop, or upgrade it with power and water for a private laundry space. A concrete pad and additional parking area provide plenty of room for vehicles and guests. The low-maintenance gravel landscaping makes this an easy lock-and-leave property for seasonal use or full-time living. Living in Pinecrest Lake means enjoying a well-kept, amenity-rich community with: Catch-and-release fishing pond Clubhouse for social gatherings and events Coin-operated laundry facilities Paved roads with year-round access HOA dues conveniently cover road maintenance, sewer, and water, making ownership simple and stress-free. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, seasonal retreat, or affordable full-time home, this property offers a relaxed lifestyle in one of Arizona's most desirable mountain communities.

3. 2026-05-08
   price $134,900 1441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1433 chars)

   Embrace the charm of mountain living in the active and friendly community of Pinecrest Lake, nestled in the scenic Rim Country of Heber-Overgaard. This affordable park model offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and outdoor lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a light and bright 1-bedroom, 1-bath home with a welcoming front living room and a versatile room addition--ideal as a family room, guest space, or extra sleeping area. Step outside to enjoy the spacious covered front deck, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing in the cool mountain air. The property also features a large shed with great potential for a workshop, or upgrade it with power and water for a private laundry space. A concrete pad and additional parking area provide plenty of room for vehicles and guests. The low-maintenance gravel landscaping makes this an easy lock-and-leave property for seasonal use or full-time living. Living in Pinecrest Lake means enjoying a well-kept, amenity-rich community with: Catch-and-release fishing pond Clubhouse for social gatherings and events Coin-operated laundry facilities Paved roads with year-round access HOA dues conveniently cover road maintenance, sewer, and water, making ownership simple and stress-free. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, seasonal retreat, or affordable full-time home, this property offers a relaxed lifestyle in one of Arizona's most desirable mountain communities.

4. 2026-05-08
   price $134,900 1433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1433 chars)

   Embrace the charm of mountain living in the active and friendly community of Pinecrest Lake, nestled in the scenic Rim Country of Heber-Overgaard. This affordable park model offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and outdoor lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a light and bright 1-bedroom, 1-bath home with a welcoming front living room and a versatile room addition--ideal as a family room, guest space, or extra sleeping area. Step outside to enjoy the spacious covered front deck, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing in the cool mountain air. The property also features a large shed with great potential for a workshop, or upgrade it with power and water for a private laundry space. A concrete pad and additional parking area provide plenty of room for vehicles and guests. The low-maintenance gravel landscaping makes this an easy lock-and-leave property for seasonal use or full-time living. Living in Pinecrest Lake means enjoying a well-kept, amenity-rich community with: Catch-and-release fishing pond Clubhouse for social gatherings and events Coin-operated laundry facilities Paved roads with year-round access HOA dues conveniently cover road maintenance, sewer, and water, making ownership simple and stress-free. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, seasonal retreat, or affordable full-time home, this property offers a relaxed lifestyle in one of Arizona's most desirable mountain communities.

5. 2026-03-20
   listed $149,900 Active 1433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1433 chars)

   Embrace the charm of mountain living in the active and friendly community of Pinecrest Lake, nestled in the scenic Rim Country of Heber-Overgaard. This affordable park model offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and outdoor lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a light and bright 1-bedroom, 1-bath home with a welcoming front living room and a versatile room addition--ideal as a family room, guest space, or extra sleeping area. Step outside to enjoy the spacious covered front deck, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing in the cool mountain air. The property also features a large shed with great potential for a workshop, or upgrade it with power and water for a private laundry space. A concrete pad and additional parking area provide plenty of room for vehicles and guests. The low-maintenance gravel landscaping makes this an easy lock-and-leave property for seasonal use or full-time living. Living in Pinecrest Lake means enjoying a well-kept, amenity-rich community with: Catch-and-release fishing pond Clubhouse for social gatherings and events Coin-operated laundry facilities Paved roads with year-round access HOA dues conveniently cover road maintenance, sewer, and water, making ownership simple and stress-free. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, seasonal retreat, or affordable full-time home, this property offers a relaxed lifestyle in one of Arizona's most desirable mountain communities.

6. 2026-03-17
   listed $149,900 Active 1441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1441 chars)

   Embrace the charm of mountain living in the active and friendly community of Pinecrest Lake, nestled in the scenic Rim Country of Heber-Overgaard. This affordable park model offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and outdoor lifestyle. Inside, you'll find a light and bright 1-bedroom, 1-bath home with a welcoming front living room and a versatile room addition--ideal as a family room, guest space, or extra sleeping area. Step outside to enjoy the spacious covered front deck, perfect for morning coffee or relaxing in the cool mountain air. The property also features a large shed with great potential for a workshop, or upgrade it with power and water for a private laundry space. A concrete pad and additional parking area provide plenty of room for vehicles and guests. The low-maintenance gravel landscaping makes this an easy lock-and-leave property for seasonal use or full-time living. Living in Pinecrest Lake means enjoying a well-kept, amenity-rich community with: Catch-and-release fishing pond Clubhouse for social gatherings and events Coin-operated laundry facilities Paved roads with year-round access HOA dues conveniently cover road maintenance, sewer, and water, making ownership simple and stress-free. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, seasonal retreat, or affordable full-time home, this property offers a relaxed lifestyle in one of Arizona's most desirable mountain communities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − HOA: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$58
• After-tax cash flow: $1,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Pinecrest Lake, Heber-Overgaard, AZ, is in good condition with minor repairs needed in the kitchen and bathroom. It offers a functional layout and a well-maintained exterior, making it a good investment for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Light wood cabinets show some wear and tear.
• Minor Bathroom — Small bathroom with a shower/tub combo, tiled walls and floor, and a functional layout. No visible damage or wear.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern, enhancing the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Replace worn-out kitchen cabinets — New cabinets can significantly improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality, making the home more attractive to potential buyers.
• Resale Replace worn-out bathroom fixtures — Upgrading the bathroom fixtures can make the space more functional and appealing to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Light wood cabinets show some wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom · Small bathroom with a shower/tub combo, tiled walls and floor, and a functional layout. No visible damage or wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern, enhancing the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace worn-out kitchen cabinets — New cabinets can significantly improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality, making the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace worn-out bathroom fixtures — Upgrading the bathroom fixtures can make the space more functional and appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $134,900 ARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $134,900 CAAR
• 2026-03-20 Listed $149,900 CAAR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $149,900 ARMLS