2209 Waterfall Dr · Killeen, TX 76549

$140,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,725 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1993 9,870 sqft lot $81/sqft · 33% below area Est $208k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home located at 2209 Waterfall Drive in Killeen! Featuring a comfortable and functional layout, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to find a spacious living area filled with natural light, seamlessly flowing into the dining space and kitchen for an open, inviting feel. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep a breeze, while the adjoining dining area provides a cozy setting for gatherings. The generously sized bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, and the primary suite includes its own en-suite bath for added convenience. Outside, enjoy a sizable backyard—ideal for relaxing, gardening, or hosting weekend barbecues. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and with easy access to major roads and Fort Cavazos, this home combines comfort, convenience, and value.

Key facts

• Sizable backyard
• Spacious living area
• 9,870 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• SIZABLE BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.9% in Killeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, employment D.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 429 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,251
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -32.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3304 Catalina Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (-4%)	1mo	$196,200	$119	75
3310 Bull Run Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+1%)	0mo	$217,000	$124	74
3707 Frigate Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,749 (+1%)	5mo	$228,000	$130	72
3307 Driftwood Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (-6%)	3mo	$214,000	$132	71
3703 Lakecrest Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,619 (-6%)	5mo	$212,000	$131	70
3805 Stallion Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,799 (+4%)	3mo	$225,000	$125	63
4200 Maid Marian Cir	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,769 (+3%)	4mo	$241,000	$136	61
2501 Westwood Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,668 (-3%)	4mo	$208,000	$125	60
3802 Frigate Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,571 (-9%)	2mo	$210,000	$134	59
2701 Wildflower Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (-8%)	4mo	$164,900	$104	52
3406 Robin Hood	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,891 (+10%)	1mo	$214,000	$113	48
2205 Bluebonnet Dr	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,622 (-6%)	3mo	$215,000	$133	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-16,952
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-14,911
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76549

• Home prices YoY: -12.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,151/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,441

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3501 Rainforest Ln Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,295	$1.05	21d	1	0.13mi
3304 Regency Ct Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$1,645	$0.95	13d	1	0.15mi
3403 Thunder Creek Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1879	$1,950	$1.04	43d	1	0.19mi
3406 Thunder Creek Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.5	1885	$1,595	$0.85	23d	1	0.23mi
3408 Thunder Creek Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1744	$1,799	$1.03	23d	1	0.24mi
2513 Cody Poe Rd Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,250	$0.96	23d	1	0.33mi
2603 Cody Poe Rd Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,195	$0.92	43d	1	0.35mi
3012 Viewcrest Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1638	$1,695	$1.03	21d	1	0.35mi
2605 Cody Poe Rd Unit A SHOWABLE AND READY Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,195	$0.92	43d	1	0.36mi
2201 Rainforest Ln Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1697	$1,695	$1.00	43d	1	0.36mi
3102 Viewcrest Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,600	$1.10	43d	1	0.36mi
2611 Cody Poe Rd Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,175	$0.90	23d	1	0.39mi
2808 Cactus Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1139	$1,595	$1.40	43d	1	0.41mi
3206 Dannen Ct Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,250	$0.94	43d	1	0.42mi
1510 Westway Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,225	$1.14	13d	1	0.44mi
3205 Dannen Ct Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,250	$0.97	43d	1	0.44mi
2701 Woodlands Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,495	$1.16	23d	1	0.45mi
3105 Dannen Ct Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,250	$0.92	43d	1	0.48mi
2604 Woodlands Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,300	$1.19	13d	1	0.51mi
2604 Woodlands Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,295	$1.19	23d	1	0.51mi
3104 Dannen Ct Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,150	$0.89	43d	1	0.51mi
3001 Dannen Ct Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,100	$0.85	43d	1	0.54mi
3710 Frigate Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,600	$0.98	23d	1	0.54mi
2501 Cactus Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1622	$1,425	$0.88	43d	1	0.58mi
3910 Fieldcrest Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,595	$1.09	43d	1	0.58mi
2408 Bluebonnet Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1622	$1,545	$0.95	23d	1	0.58mi
2505 Armadillo Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,400	$1.25	43d	1	0.59mi
2404 Fieldstone Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,365	$1.14	23d	1	0.59mi
2404 Bluebonnet Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1095	$1,350	$1.23	43d	1	0.61mi
3903 Tiger Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$1,595	$0.87	23d	1	0.61mi
4004 Bull Run Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$1,900	$0.91	43d	1	0.64mi
4004 Bull Run Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$1,900	$0.91	23d	1	0.64mi
2504 Bluejay Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,475	$0.84	23d	1	0.65mi
4209 Thunder Creek Dr Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,275	$1.00	43d	1	0.67mi
2405 Westwood Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,550	$0.93	43d	1	0.68mi
4413 Thunder Creek Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,197	$0.91	23d	1	0.74mi
2104 Corona Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,450	$0.98	21d	1	0.76mi
2104 Corona Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,450	$0.98	23d	1	0.76mi
3101 Westrim Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,400	$0.96	43d	1	0.78mi
2803 Windmill Ct Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,025	$0.83	23d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $140,000 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-05-07
   price $165,000 868-char remark

   Show marketing remark (868 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home located at 2209 Waterfall Drive in Killeen! Featuring a comfortable and functional layout, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to find a spacious living area filled with natural light, seamlessly flowing into the dining space and kitchen for an open, inviting feel. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep a breeze, while the adjoining dining area provides a cozy setting for gatherings. The generously sized bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, and the primary suite includes its own en-suite bath for added convenience. Outside, enjoy a sizable backyard—ideal for relaxing, gardening, or hosting weekend barbecues. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and with easy access to major roads and Fort Cavazos, this home combines comfort, convenience, and value.

3. 2026-04-22
   price $175,000 868-char remark

   Show marketing remark (868 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home located at 2209 Waterfall Drive in Killeen! Featuring a comfortable and functional layout, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to find a spacious living area filled with natural light, seamlessly flowing into the dining space and kitchen for an open, inviting feel. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep a breeze, while the adjoining dining area provides a cozy setting for gatherings. The generously sized bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, and the primary suite includes its own en-suite bath for added convenience. Outside, enjoy a sizable backyard—ideal for relaxing, gardening, or hosting weekend barbecues. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and with easy access to major roads and Fort Cavazos, this home combines comfort, convenience, and value.

4. 2026-04-08
   price $185,000 868-char remark

   Show marketing remark (868 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home located at 2209 Waterfall Drive in Killeen! Featuring a comfortable and functional layout, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to find a spacious living area filled with natural light, seamlessly flowing into the dining space and kitchen for an open, inviting feel. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep a breeze, while the adjoining dining area provides a cozy setting for gatherings. The generously sized bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, and the primary suite includes its own en-suite bath for added convenience. Outside, enjoy a sizable backyard—ideal for relaxing, gardening, or hosting weekend barbecues. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and with easy access to major roads and Fort Cavazos, this home combines comfort, convenience, and value.

5. 2026-03-27
   listed $200,000 Active 868-char remark

   Show marketing remark (868 chars)

   Welcome to this charming home located at 2209 Waterfall Drive in Killeen! Featuring a comfortable and functional layout, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to find a spacious living area filled with natural light, seamlessly flowing into the dining space and kitchen for an open, inviting feel. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space, making meal prep a breeze, while the adjoining dining area provides a cozy setting for gatherings. The generously sized bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, and the primary suite includes its own en-suite bath for added convenience. Outside, enjoy a sizable backyard—ideal for relaxing, gardening, or hosting weekend barbecues. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and with easy access to major roads and Fort Cavazos, this home combines comfort, convenience, and value.

6. 2024-11-06
   soldstatus
7. 2024-10-24
   status Pending
8. 2024-09-30
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2024-06-26
   listed $225,000 Active
10. 2024-03-14
    soldstatus
11. 2016-01-29
    historical
12. 2016-01-14
    listed $89,000
13. 1999-03-11
    soldstatus
14. 1994-01-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,151 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,151 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$4,151
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$126
• After-tax cash flow: $1,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killeen, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 56,038
• Household income: $70,871
• Rent vs Own: 44.7% rent · 55.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1874.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.68%
• Current HPI: 171.2708
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+85.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-24 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2024-09-30 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2024-06-26 Listed $225,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-01-29 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2016-01-14 Listed $89,000 CTXMLS
• 1999-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,151 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.