29 Calle Susanna · Elk Grove, CA 95624

$107,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 1977 $74/sqft · 20% below area Est $133k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Elk Grove's beloved park has a new three bedroom! Large yard with full size lemon tree and an empty lot behind. The oaks is famous for activities, pool, billiard room, library and fitness facility. Make retirement happy. Welcome home.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Empty lot behind
• Billiard room

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• FULL SIZE LEMON TREE
• EMPTY LOT BEHIND
• POOL
• BILLIARD ROOM
• LIBRARY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 2.8% in Elk Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 243 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,580 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.33%
• DSCR: 3.64
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,935
• List price: $107,000
• Delta: -19.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Calle Arboleda	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$125,000	$87	84
135 Calle Maria	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$152,500	$106	83
1 Calle Margarita	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$42,500	$30	82
62 Calle Margarita	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$135,000	$94	80
141 Calle Maria Unit B	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	8mo	$148,145	$119	60
42 Calle Linda	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	19mo	$155,000	$101	59
69 Calle Margarita	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-10%)	20mo	$70,000	$54	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $69,158
• Equity at exit: $15,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $151,303
• Equity at exit: $9,251

Cash invested: $29,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95624

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,811 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $1,481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $936

Max offer price $107,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,555	-5% $1,518	+0% $1,481	+5% $1,444	+10% $1,407
Rent	-10% $1,259	-5% $1,370	+0% $1,481	+5% $1,592	+10% $1,703
Rate	-1.0pp $1,535	-0.5pp $1,509	base $1,481	+0.5pp $1,454	+1.0pp $1,425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,750
• Closing costs: $3,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9672 Gage St Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	993	$1,850	$1.86	45d	1	0.80mi
9270 Emerald Crest Dr Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,550	$1.75	5d	1	1.07mi
8947 Rancho Grande Ct Unit 8947 Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$1,895	$1.93	5d	1	1.11mi
9262 Terra Linda Dr Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	13d	1	1.11mi
8960 Laguna Vista Ct Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,150	$2.26	9d	1	1.14mi
8709 Sangria Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,650	$2.45	19d	1	1.15mi
9101 Vernetta Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	1.5	1080	$2,450	$2.27	9d	1	1.15mi
8212 Shannon Oak Ln Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,600	$1.92	45d	1	1.16mi
4917 Aizenberg Cir Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,500	$1.70	45d	1	1.19mi
9101 Yount Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1664	$5,500	$3.31	4d	1	1.22mi
9567 S Coast Ln Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.5	1265	$2,300	$1.82	5d	1	1.23mi
10087 Emerald Grove Dr Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,575	$1.90	45d	1	1.23mi
10110 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1628	$3,300	$2.03	9d	1	1.24mi
9534 Sunlight Ln Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,650	$1.86	19d	1	1.26mi
9428 Plainoak Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,745	$2.23	9d	1	1.28mi
9243 Elk Grove Florin Rd Unit 104 Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1030	$2,275	$2.21	45d	1	1.33mi
9241 Elk Grove Florin Rd Unit 220 Elk Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1030	$2,195	$2.13	9d	1	1.33mi
10191 Gatemont Cir Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,800	$1.56	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $107,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $107,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $107,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $107,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $107,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   status $107,000 Active 57 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,994
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,699
• − Management: −$2,699
• − Depreciation: −$3,113
• Taxable income: $17,089
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,101
• After-tax cash flow: $13,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Elk Grove

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6681

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Grove, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 190,119
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,630
• Household income: $125,332
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1160.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 6% Vietnamese 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -416.87%
• Current HPI: 308.8294
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B