31414 Harp Ridge Dr · Fulshear, TX 77441

$299,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition $169/sqft · 10% below area Est $334k · 10% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The property is located at 31414 Harp Ridge Drive FULSHEAR TX 77441 priced at 299990, the square foot and stories are 1778, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-156/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1928 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 101d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $260,783 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,719
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -10.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3014 Holland Lakes Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,778 (0%)	1mo	$294,990	$166	88
3034 Bloomsbury Terrace Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,717 (-3%)	0mo	$294,990	$172	83
31239 Harp Ridge Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,717 (-3%)	1mo	$289,990	$169	82
31707 Whittis Hill Way	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,862 (+5%)	0mo	$272,500	$146	71
3407 Hopper Knoll Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-2%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	68
3011 Ferris Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,778 (0%)	0mo	$299,990	$169	67
3511 Ashe Landing Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,748 (-2%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	66
3010 Ferris Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,544 (-13%)	1mo	$304,990	$198	66
3002 Ferris Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,778 (0%)	0mo	$304,990	$172	66
3018 Ferris Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,717 (-3%)	1mo	$314,990	$183	61
3011 Bloomsbury Terrace Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-14%)	1mo	$279,990	$182	61
3006 Bloomsbury Terrace Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-14%)	1mo	$254,990	$166	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-57,041
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-80,110
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 121 active · 160 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $306,990 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 28 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1928
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,608 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $298,112

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $91	+0% $-13	+5% $-117	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-116	+0% $-13	+5% $90	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $63	base $-13	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31707 Melkridge Rd Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	38d	1	0.07mi
3206 Langley Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2276	$2,300	$1.01	83d	1	0.22mi
31306 Bentley Pines Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	64d	1	0.85mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,456	$1.43	0d	5	1.11mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	153d	1	1.12mi
32311 Melbrooke Dr Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.5	2434	$2,295	$0.94	100d	1	1.12mi
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	153d	1	1.31mi
30375 Centipede Grove Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	184d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-07-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-07-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-07-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-07-05
   days on market $299,990 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-07-03
   days on market $299,990 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-07-02
   days on market $299,990 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-07-01
   days on market $299,990 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-30
   price $299,990 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-30
   days on market $309,990 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-29
    days on market $309,990 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-28
    days on market $309,990 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-27
    days on market $309,990 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-26
    days on market $309,990 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-24
    days on market $309,990 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-22
    days on market $309,990 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-21
    days on market $309,990 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-06-18
    days on market $309,990 Active 8 DOM
18. 2026-06-17
    days on market $309,990 Active 7 DOM
19. 2026-06-16
    days on market $309,990 Active 6 DOM
20. 2026-06-15
    days on market $309,990 Active 5 DOM
21. 2026-06-13
    remarks 240-char remark
22. 2026-06-13
    listed $309,990 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,504
• − Management: −$2,504
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,259
• After-tax cash flow: $1,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,890–$26,670 screening

The home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

---

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B