325 Bar Park Loop · Coldspring, TX 77331

$148,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1971 10,576 sqft lot $152/sqft · 15% below area Est $175k · 15% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the heart of charming Coldspring, a short distance from the San Jacinto County Fairgrounds, this newly remodeled home is move-in ready! Not only remodeled; a new HVAC system has been installed too. 3 Bedroom/2bathroom with a good size fenced yard on a quiet corner lot. Close to schools and a new fitness center is being built nearby. Call to see it today!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1971

Tags

• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.0% in Coldspring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,357 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Street El (449 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln J H (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 347 students, 58% FRL); Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 364 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,135 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.75%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,109
• List price: $148,500
• Delta: -15.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2595 Fm 222 Loop N	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+14%)	6mo	$179,000	$160	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,799
• Equity at exit: $22,142

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $34,678
• Equity at exit: $12,840

Cash invested: $41,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$779
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $411/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $148,500

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $491	-5% $449	+0% $407	+5% $365	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $279	-5% $343	+0% $407	+5% $471	+10% $535
Rate	-1.0pp $482	-0.5pp $445	base $407	+0.5pp $369	+1.0pp $330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,125
• Closing costs: $4,455
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $148,500 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $148,500 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $148,500 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $148,500 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $148,500 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $148,500 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $148,500 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $148,500 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $148,500 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $148,500 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $148,500 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $148,500 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $148,500 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $148,500 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $148,500 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $148,500 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $148,500 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-02-25
    listed $148,500 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Located in the heart of charming Coldspring, a short distance from the San Jacinto County Fairgrounds, this newly remodeled home is move-in ready! Not only remodeled; a new HVAC system has been installed too. 3 Bedroom/2bathroom with a good size fenced yard on a quiet corner lot. Close to schools and a new fitness center is being built nearby. Call to see it today!

19. 2024-02-02
    soldstatus
20. 2014-10-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $411 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,718 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,306/yr (+$192/mo · 560.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,318
• − Property taxes: −$411
• − Insurance: −$742
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$4,320
• Taxable income: $2,566
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$616
• After-tax cash flow: $4,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coldspring

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1357
• US rank: #23364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coldspring, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $148,500 HARMLS
• 2024-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $411 · +26.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.