126 Barham St · Jackson, TN 38301

$30,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1970 9,150 sqft lot ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 9,150 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 156 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; One-level, single-story home
• Exterior features: 50 x 183 irregular lot; Hillcrest Circle subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.6% vs local median 3.5% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#216 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $211 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $915 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.41%
• DSCR: 4.71
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,128
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
79 Hillcrest Circle Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0 (+1)	923 (+7%)	11mo	$93,900	$102	63
112 Rhea St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (+1)	768 (-11%)	15mo	$65,500	$85	38
91 Holland Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (+1)	892 (+3%)	23mo	$190,000	$213	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $35,134
• Equity at exit: $4,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.42×
• Total profit: $89,012
• Equity at exit: $2,637

Cash invested: $8,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38301

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$160
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $322/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $253

Max offer price $30,500

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $611	-5% $602	+0% $594	+5% $585	+10% $576
Rent	-10% $514	-5% $554	+0% $594	+5% $633	+10% $673
Rate	-1.0pp $609	-0.5pp $601	base $594	+0.5pp $586	+1.0pp $578

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,625
• Closing costs: $915
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-20
   price $30,500
2. 2026-04-22
   price $33,100
3. 2026-03-27
   price $35,976
4. 2026-02-26
   price $39,104
5. 2026-01-27
   price $42,504
6. 2025-12-22
   listed $46,200 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $322 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $322 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,708
• − Property taxes: −$322
• − Insurance: −$152
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$964
• − Management: −$964
• − Depreciation: −$887
• Taxable income: $7,049
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,692
• After-tax cash flow: $5,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 4702580
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,015
• Composite: 11.74/100
• National rank: #9687
• State rank: #131 of 139 in TN

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #16488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, TN
• County: Madison County · 87,024 people
• City population: 87,024
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,536
• Household income: $43,227
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1701.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,952 people
• By 2030: 94,264 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 89,607 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 84,133 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 72,215 · -24.7%
• By 2100: 62,062 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 42% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.3% · R 58.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+12.9 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.26%
• Current HPI: 162.2273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-34.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $30,500 CWTAR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $33,100 CWTAR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $35,976 CWTAR
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $39,104 CWTAR
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $42,504 CWTAR
• 2025-12-22 Listed $46,200 CWTAR

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $322 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.