15211 Riverside Dr · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$469,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 0.27 ac lot $191/sqft · 20% below area Est $586k · 20% under $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

YOU HAVE FOUND YOUR HOME AT RIVERSIDE ESTATES, ZONED TO BARBERS HILL ISD! With only 45 minutes commute to downtown Houston, and zoned to one of the best school districts in Texas, there is nowhere better to call home. This modern and spacious home has 4 spacious bedrooms, plenty of natural light, and a modern open concept! The living area is open to a large kitchen with quartz counter tops and a huge island that is perfect to enjoy any meals with friends and family. The primary bedroom has lots of natural light and beautiful bathroom featuring double sinks, separate shower and soaking tub, plus a large closet! All bedrooms in this home are a great size and have plenty of storage. You will love this home the minute you step in! Make it yours today! Ready for Summer 2026 Move In!

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $470k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-933 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (35.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.6% in Mont Belvieu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($442k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,044 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.51%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $585,798
• List price: $469,990
• Delta: -19.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15110 Cibolo Ln	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,616 (+6%)	3mo	$499,990	$191	69
8427 N Fm 565 Rd	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,300 (-6%)	13mo	$580,000	$252	47
7422 Hillside Ave	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,706 (+10%)	6mo	$459,900	$170	44
15315 Arnold	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,540 (+3%)	16mo	$309,900	$122	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-134,204
• Equity at exit: $70,077

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-187,730
• Equity at exit: $40,636

Cash invested: $131,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,010 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$587 /mo · $7,050/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-933

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,191

Max offer price $335,020

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,498
• Closing costs: $14,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	44d	1	1.04mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	1d	1	1.18mi
9922 Red Knot ST Mont Belvieu, TX	5.0	3.0	2563	$3,399	$1.33	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $469,990 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $469,990 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $469,990 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $469,990 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $469,990 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $469,990 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $469,990 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $469,990 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $469,990 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $469,990 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $469,990 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $469,990 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $469,990 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-04-16
    price $449,990 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    YOU HAVE FOUND YOUR HOME AT RIVERSIDE ESTATES, ZONED TO BARBERS HILL ISD! With only 45 minutes commute to downtown Houston, and zoned to one of the best school districts in Texas, there is nowhere better to call home. This modern and spacious home has 4 spacious bedrooms, plenty of natural light, and a modern open concept! The living area is open to a large kitchen with quartz counter tops and a huge island that is perfect to enjoy any meals with friends and family. The primary bedroom has lots of natural light and beautiful bathroom featuring double sinks, separate shower and soaking tub, plus a large closet! All bedrooms in this home are a great size and have plenty of storage. You will love this home the minute you step in! Make it yours today! Ready for Summer 2026 Move In!

15. 2026-04-14
    listed $490,040 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    YOU HAVE FOUND YOUR HOME AT RIVERSIDE ESTATES, ZONED TO BARBERS HILL ISD! With only 45 minutes commute to downtown Houston, and zoned to one of the best school districts in Texas, there is nowhere better to call home. This modern and spacious home has 4 spacious bedrooms, plenty of natural light, and a modern open concept! The living area is open to a large kitchen with quartz counter tops and a huge island that is perfect to enjoy any meals with friends and family. The primary bedroom has lots of natural light and beautiful bathroom featuring double sinks, separate shower and soaking tub, plus a large closet! All bedrooms in this home are a great size and have plenty of storage. You will love this home the minute you step in! Make it yours today! Ready for Summer 2026 Move In!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,327
• − Property taxes: −$7,050
• − Insurance: −$2,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,890
• − Management: −$2,890
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$13,672
• Taxable loss: −$19,810
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,754
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mont Belvieu, TX
• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $449,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $490,040 HARMLS