1940 Springvale Rd · Duluth, MN 55811

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1921 0.42 ac lot Est $298k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well laid out home in great Piedmont location on huge lot that goes out to Miller Creek in back yard. There is a new 100 amp electric service and newer gas forced air furnace. The home has 2 baths and 2 large decks looking out at beautiful rear yard. Nice good sized home with 2 car garage.

Key facts

• Piedmont location
• Beautiful rear yard
• 2 large decks

Tags

• PIEDMONT LOCATION
• HUGE LOT
• NEW 200 AMP ELECTRIC SERVICE
• NEWER GAS FORCED AIR FURNACE
• 2 LARGE DECKS
• BEAUTIFUL REAR YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $2,932 annual tax amount

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Single-story
• Construction: Above-grade finished area of 1,098; Lot dimensions approximately 193 x 95; Lot size about 0.42 acre
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; City street frontage

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,213/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 1019% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $270,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.75%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,558
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2106 Piedmont Ave	0.39mi	4/1.5	1,106 (+1%)	12mo	$300,000	$271	69
2219 Hoover St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,078 (-2%)	22mo	$249,000	$231	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $8,696
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $91,598
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55811

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,213 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,726/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$675
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,258

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2302 Hillcrest Dr Duluth, MN	3.0	1.5	1072	$3,500	$3.26	43d	1	0.26mi
505 W Orange St Duluth, MN	3.0	1.0	1022	$3,500	$3.42	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 290-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,726 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,903 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,726
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,084
• − Management: −$3,084
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $4,878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,171
• After-tax cash flow: $7,878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duluth Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,692
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3360
• State rank: #132 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 71,097
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 28,118
• Household income: $79,804
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.84%
• Current HPI: 198.2613
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $275,000 LSAR

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,726 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.