Chantilly 2 Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

$303,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,866 sqft · SingleFamily · 131 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Chantilly - Smart Two-Story Living with Everyday Comfort The Chantilly is a thoughtfully designed two-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a flex room, covered outdoor living, and a 2-car garage. An open-concept main level creates a comfortable flow between the family room, kitchen, and casual dining area, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features a center island, abundant cabinet and counter space, and a spacious pantry, while an optional fireplace adds warmth and character to the family room.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 131 days

🏗️ New construction. The $303,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $355,663.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $304k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-852 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2407 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,245 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.27%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,663
• List price: $303,990
• Delta: -14.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26822 Jovial Meadow Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,866 (0%)	2mo	$315,990	$169	92
26830 Jovial Meadow Ln	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,878 (+1%)	3mo	$330,990	$176	90
16306 Chestnut Haven Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,819 (-2%)	3mo	$284,540	$156	69
27231 Scarlet Paint Brush Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,860 (-0%)	1mo	$324,925	$175	67
26751 Celestial Cypress Rd	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,942 (+4%)	1mo	$289,900	$149	63
26527 Delightful Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,017 (+8%)	1mo	$374,925	$186	58
16510 Harmony Lea Ln	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,137 (+14%)	0mo	$397,643	$186	57
26551 Glad Fields Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-9%)	3mo	$324,990	$191	53
26723 Celestial Cypress Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (-10%)	3mo	$299,990	$179	52
17314 Merry Lea Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (-8%)	3mo	$319,990	$186	51
27330 Scarlet Paint Brush Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,736 (-7%)	3mo	$299,900	$173	49
26702 Plain Glee St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,612 (-14%)	2mo	$295,000	$183	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-117,840
• Equity at exit: $53,031

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.96×
• Total profit: $-195,404
• Equity at exit: $30,751

Cash invested: $99,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 174 active · 60 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,490 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 123 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2407
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$445 /mo · $5,335/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-852

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,111

Max offer price $232,338

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-606	-5% $-729	+0% $-852	+5% $-975	+10% $-1,098
Rent	-10% $-1,013	-5% $-933	+0% $-852	+5% $-772	+10% $-692
Rate	-1.0pp $-673	-0.5pp $-762	base $-852	+0.5pp $-944	+1.0pp $-1,038

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,916
• Closing costs: $10,670
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16267 Silver Wing Ln Hockley, TX	3.0	2.5	1669	$1,650	$0.99	88d	1	0.78mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,866 total
• Financial info: List price $303,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Chantilly 2 floor planNew construction (Plan)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Single-family plan home on developed lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen included with the Chantilly 2 plan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan home)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area included

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $303,990 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $303,990 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $303,990 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $303,990 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $303,990 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $303,990 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $303,990 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $303,990 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $303,990 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $303,990 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $303,990 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $303,990 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $303,990 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $303,990 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $303,990 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $303,990 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $303,990 Active 107 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $303,990 Active 106 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $303,990 Active 105 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $303,990 Active 104 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $303,990 Active 102 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $303,990 Active 101 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $303,990 Active 100 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $303,990 Active 99 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $303,990 Active 98 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $303,990 Active 97 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $303,990 Active 96 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $303,990 Active 95 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $303,990 Active 94 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $303,990 Active 93 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $303,990 Active 92 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $303,990 Active 91 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $303,990 Active 90 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $303,990 Active 89 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $303,990 Active 88 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $303,990 Active 87 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $303,990 Active 86 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $303,990 Active 85 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $303,990 Active 83 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $303,990 Active 82 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $303,990 Active 81 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $303,990 Active 80 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    remarks 699-char remark
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $303,990 Active 77 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $303,990 Active 75 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $303,990 Active 74 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $303,990 Active 72 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $303,990 Active 70 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $303,990 Active 69 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $303,990 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,335
• − Insurance: −$1,778
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − Depreciation: −$10,347
• Taxable loss: −$16,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,055
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained features. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,866 total
• Financial info: List price $303,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Chantilly 2 floor planNew construction (Plan)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Single-family plan home on developed lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen included with the Chantilly 2 plan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan home)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area included