Chantilly 2 Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

$303,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,866 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Chantilly - Smart Two-Story Living with Everyday Comfort The Chantilly is a thoughtfully designed two-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a flex room, covered outdoor living, and a 2-car garage. An open-concept main level creates a comfortable flow between the family room, kitchen, and casual dining area, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features a center island, abundant cabinet and counter space, and a spacious pantry, while an optional fireplace adds warmth and character to the family room.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 84 days

🏗️ New construction. The $303,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $349,290.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $304k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-771 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,902 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.47%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,290
• List price: $303,990
• Delta: -12.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26822 Jovial Meadow Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,866 (0%)	1mo	$315,990	$169	93
26830 Jovial Meadow Ln	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,878 (+1%)	1mo	$330,990	$176	91
26831 Jovial Meadow Ln	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-8%)	2mo	$295,990	$173	79
16306 Chestnut Haven Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,819 (-2%)	1mo	$284,540	$156	70
16302 Chestnut Haven Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,970 (+6%)	2mo	$287,240	$146	65
16219 Chestnut Haven Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,970 (+6%)	2mo	$294,190	$149	64
26551 Glad Fields Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-9%)	1mo	$324,990	$191	55
26723 Celestial Cypress Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (-10%)	1mo	$299,990	$179	53
17314 Merry Lea Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (-8%)	1mo	$319,990	$186	52
27330 Scarlet Paint Brush Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,736 (-7%)	1mo	$299,900	$173	50
16318 Chestnut Haven Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,081 (+12%)	2mo	$292,740	$141	50
26702 Plain Glee St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,612 (-14%)	0mo	$295,000	$183	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-111,795
• Equity at exit: $52,080

10-year hold

• IRR: -74.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.88×
• Total profit: $-184,035
• Equity at exit: $30,200

Cash invested: $97,801 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 157 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $346,990 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 98 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2097
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,832
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,239/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,056

Max offer price $237,662

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-530	-5% $-651	+0% $-771	+5% $-892	+10% $-1,013
Rent	-10% $-936	-5% $-854	+0% $-771	+5% $-689	+10% $-607
Rate	-1.0pp $-596	-0.5pp $-683	base $-771	+0.5pp $-862	+1.0pp $-954

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,323
• Closing costs: $10,479
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16267 Silver Wing Ln Hockley, TX	3.0	2.5	1669	$1,650	$0.99	41d	1	0.78mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,866 total
• Financial info: List price $303,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Chantilly 2 floor planNew construction (Plan)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Single-family plan home on developed lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen included with the Chantilly 2 plan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan home)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area included

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $303,990 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $303,990 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $303,990 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $303,990 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $303,990 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $303,990 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $303,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $303,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $303,990 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $303,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $303,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $303,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $303,990 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $303,990 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $303,990 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $303,990 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $303,990 Active 61 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $303,990 Active 60 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $303,990 Active 59 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $303,990 Active 58 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $303,990 Active 57 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $303,990 Active 56 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $303,990 Active 55 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $303,990 Active 53 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $303,990 Active 52 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $303,990 Active 51 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $303,990 Active 50 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $303,990 Active 49 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $303,990 Active 48 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $303,990 Active 47 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $303,990 Active 46 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $303,990 Active 45 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $303,990 Active 44 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $303,990 Active 43 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $303,990 Active 42 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $303,990 Active 40 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $303,990 Active 37 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $303,990 Active 34 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $303,990 Active 33 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $303,990 Active 32 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $303,990 Active 31 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $303,990 Active 29 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $303,990 Active 25 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $303,990 Active 24 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $303,990 Active 23 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $303,990 Active 20 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $303,990 Active 19 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $303,990 Active 18 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $303,990 Active 17 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,566
• − Property taxes: −$5,239
• − Insurance: −$1,746
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,996
• − Management: −$1,996
• − Depreciation: −$10,161
• Taxable loss: −$15,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,781
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained features. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,866 total
• Financial info: List price $303,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Chantilly 2 floor planNew construction (Plan)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Single-family plan home on developed lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen included with the Chantilly 2 plan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan home)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area included