7 Nevada Dr Unit B · Cedar Glen Lakes, NJ 08759

$45,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition $64/sqft · 36% below area Est $70k · 36% under $397/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to easy living in the desirable Cedar Glen Lakes adult community! This charming Westmont model offers one spacious bedroom and one full bathroom, thoughtfully designed for comfort and convenience. The home features a washer and dryer, refrigerator, and electric stove, making it move-in ready. With no stairs and a slab foundation, you'll enjoy effortless entry and one-level living. Cedar Glen Lakes is known for its friendly atmosphere and wonderful amenities, including a clubhouse, exercise room, clubs and social activities, bingo, and so much more! Whether you're looking to relax or get involved, there's something for everyone here. Enjoy peace of mind, an active lifestyle, and community living -- all in a great location close to shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore

Key facts

• Slab foundation
• Clubhouse
• Exercise room

Tags

• CEDAR GLEN LAKES COMMUNITY
• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• SLAB FOUNDATION
• CLUBHOUSE
• EXERCISE ROOM
• SOCIAL ACTIVITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#406 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.92%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,793
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -35.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Nevada Dr Unit B	0.00mi	1/1.0	700 (0%)	0mo	$45,000	$64	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $25,021
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $64,137
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$397
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $896

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $397 · $4,764/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Welcome to easy living in the desirable Cedar Glen Lakes adult community! This charming Westmont model offers one spacious bedroom and one full bathroom, thoughtfully designed for comfort and convenience. The home features a washer and dryer, refrigerator, and electric stove, making it move-in ready. With no stairs and a slab foundation, you'll enjoy effortless entry and one-level living. Cedar Glen Lakes is known for its friendly atmosphere and wonderful amenities, including a clubhouse, exercise room, clubs and social activities, bingo, and so much more! Whether you're looking to relax or get involved, there's something for everyone here. Enjoy peace of mind, an active lifestyle, and community living -- all in a great location close to shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore

2. 2026-03-26
   listed $45,000 Active 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Welcome to easy living in the desirable Cedar Glen Lakes adult community! This charming Westmont model offers one spacious bedroom and one full bathroom, thoughtfully designed for comfort and convenience. The home features a washer and dryer, refrigerator, and electric stove, making it move-in ready. With no stairs and a slab foundation, you'll enjoy effortless entry and one-level living. Cedar Glen Lakes is known for its friendly atmosphere and wonderful amenities, including a clubhouse, exercise room, clubs and social activities, bingo, and so much more! Whether you're looking to relax or get involved, there's something for everyone here. Enjoy peace of mind, an active lifestyle, and community living -- all in a great location close to shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − HOA: −$4,764
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,960
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,430
• After-tax cash flow: $4,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. It has a good roof and exterior, but the interior walls, flooring, windows, and HVAC system could benefit from updates. The home is move-in ready and has a good location in a desirable community.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint on interior walls — The paint appears to be slightly worn and could benefit from a fresh coat.
• Minor Flooring — The carpeted flooring may benefit from cleaning or replacement.
• Minor Windows — The windows may benefit from cleaning or replacement.
• Minor HVAC system — The HVAC system may benefit from maintenance or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Replace windows — New windows can improve the home's appearance and energy efficiency, making it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more appealing to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint on interior walls · The paint appears to be slightly worn and could benefit from a fresh coat.	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · The carpeted flooring may benefit from cleaning or replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Windows · The windows may benefit from cleaning or replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC system · The HVAC system may benefit from maintenance or replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace windows — New windows can improve the home's appearance and energy efficiency, making it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Cedar Glen Lakes

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #14186

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen Lakes, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $45,000 MOMLS