1536 Mount Carmel St · Williamsport, PA 17701

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1920 1,738 sqft lot $72/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors and Buyers looking for affordability here is a property with great potential. This property has 3 spacious bedrooms, 1 full bath, large living room/dining room combo and a back patio area that borders the alley.

Key facts

• 1,738 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Zoned R2
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Stone and block foundation; Metal roof; Built with finished areas above and below grade
• Exterior features: Sloped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Range; Freezer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 5.6% in Williamsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#523 in PA, #4,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Williamsport Area SD (urban): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #349 of 539 in PA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 73 units permitted in Lycoming County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lycoming County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.15%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,583
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -69.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1168 Rural Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+10%)	18mo	$160,000	$150	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $10,168
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $41,229
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17701

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,573/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $667

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $333	+0% $313	+5% $293	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $271	+0% $313	+5% $355	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $348	-0.5pp $331	base $313	+0.5pp $295	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1410 Saint James Pl Williamsport, PA	1.0	1.0	608	$850	$1.40	45d	1	0.30mi
2001 Memorial Ave Williamsport, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$1,335	$1.47	44d	1	0.74mi
770 W 4th St Williamsport, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	814	$1,155	$1.42	44d	1	1.18mi
2500 Federal Ave Williamsport, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0	764	$1,196	$1.56	44d	7	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $99,000 Active 513-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,573
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,021
• − Management: −$1,021
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$681
• After-tax cash flow: $3,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsport Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4226460
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,637
• Composite: 34.63/100
• National rank: #5150
• State rank: #349 of 539 in PA

Livability — Williamsport

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #4841

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamsport, PA
• County: Lycoming County · 43,104 people
• City population: 43,104
• Metro: Williamsport, PA
• Population (ZIP): 43,104
• Household income: $53,237
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2178.0

Population outlook (Lycoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,164 people
• By 2030: 112,221 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 107,613 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 102,950 · -9.8%
• By 2075: 92,987 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 80,924 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lycoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.5) · D 28.8% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.3pp toward R · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -41.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.5 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+33.3 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.61%
• Current HPI: 216.7203
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Williamsport, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-29.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $70,000 WBVAR
• 2026-04-30 Listed $99,000 WBVAR

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,573 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.