121 Dove Landing Ct · Navasota, TX 77868

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,385 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2021 5,662 sqft lot Est $224k · 11% over $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home by Blackrock Builders offering 1,385 square feet of comfortable living space. The open-concept floor plan features a spacious living area, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a refrigerator that conveys with the sale. Just off the entry, you’ll find a versatile flex space ideal for a home office, study, or playroom. The primary suite includes granite countertops and a tiled walk-in glass shower. A large laundry/mud room with built-in, overhead cabinets provides added convenience and storage. Enjoy relaxing on the back porch overlooking the backyard. Additional features include gutters and easy access to a nearby city park wi

Key facts

• Flex space
• Granite countertops
• 5,662 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FLEX SPACE
• TILED WALK-IN GLASS SHOWER
• LARGE LAUNDRY MUD ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $250 covering common areas; Community features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener; Additional parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (first level); Built in 2021
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Private yard; Fully fenced backyard; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level) — 15x13; Bedroom (First level) — 11x10; Bedroom (First level) — 11x10; Office (First level) — 8x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Attic fan
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-911/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Navasota — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#852 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Navasota ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #600 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John C Webb El (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 597 students, 80% FRL); Navasota J H (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 664 students, 82% FRL); Navasota H S (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,023 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 884 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,267 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.30%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,370
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Dove Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-3%)	2mo	$249,000	$185	91
129 Dove Landing Court Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+1%)	10mo	$249,500	$179	89
119 Dove Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,279 (-8%)	12mo	$225,000	$176	74
2309 White Wing	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+8%)	1mo	$243,310	$162	73
2306 White Wing	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+7%)	4mo	$239,070	$161	71
2308 White Wing	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+8%)	3mo	$249,185	$166	70
2311 White Wing	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+11%)	0mo	$239,710	$156	69
2305 White Wing	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+11%)	1mo	$245,655	$160	68
2313 White Wing	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+11%)	1mo	$237,605	$154	68
2301 White Wing	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+11%)	1mo	$220,000	$143	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-45,271
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-45,335
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77868

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$364 /mo · $4,369/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,279

Max offer price $236,583

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $-5	+0% $-76	+5% $-147	+10% $-217
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-162	+0% $-76	+5% $10	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-12	base $-76	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2301 White Wing Dr Navasota, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,000	$1.30	14d	1	0.29mi
2301 White Wing Dr Navasota, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,000	$1.30	7d	1	0.29mi
118 Miller St Unit 1328087P Navasota, TX	2.0	1.0	904	$3,765	$4.16	0d	1	0.93mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,369 · $364/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$206/yr (+$17/mo · 4.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,369
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,235
• After-tax cash flow: $324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navasota ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832190
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,326
• Composite: 26.5/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #600 of 826 in TX

Livability — Navasota

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #852
• US rank: #15344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Navasota, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,863

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.02%
• Current HPI: 206.7894
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $250,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+55.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,369 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.