2135 Dawson Springs Rd · Hopkinsville, KY 42240

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1950 $56/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Needs TLC and fixer up. Could be a nice starter home or investment property.

Key facts

• Built 1950
• Listed 48 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.2% vs local median 4.3% in Hopkinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#305 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Christian County (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #93 of 165 in KY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 193 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Christian County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.42%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,919
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -66.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Hillside Ter	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-5%)	7mo	$125,000	$149	75
1409 Honeysuckle Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	950 (+8%)	6mo	$147,500	$155	49
1407 Barberry Pl	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+13%)	15mo	$132,000	$132	32
1404 Aspen Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+13%)	22mo	$135,000	$135	27
1412 Honeysuckle Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,000 (+13%)	22mo	$155,000	$155	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $35,929
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.28×
• Total profit: $101,753
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42240

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $253/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $384

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
617 Vass Ln Hopkinsville, KY	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,150	$1.11	13d	1	0.40mi
624 Vass Ln Hopkinsville, KY	2.0	1.0	836	$925	$1.11	43d	1	0.42mi
607 Colonette Dr Hopkinsville, KY	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,600	$1.51	43d	1	0.60mi
605 Colonette Dr Hopkinsville, KY	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,625	$1.53	21d	1	0.60mi
600 A Colonelette Dr Unit A Hopkinsville, KY	2.0	2.0	980	$1,020	$1.04	21d	1	0.63mi
600 A Colonelette Dr Unit 600 Hopkinsville, KY	2.0	2.0	980	$1,020	$1.04	21d	1	0.63mi
600 A Colonelette Dr Unit 600 Hopkinsville, KY	2.0	2.0	980	$1,020	$1.04	43d	1	0.63mi
600 A Colonelette Dr Unit A Hopkinsville, KY	2.0	2.0	980	$1,050	$1.07	43d	1	0.63mi
106 Dickerson Ln Hopkinsville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	43d	1	0.70mi
117 B S Fowler Ave Unit A Hopkinsville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	13d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $49,900 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $49,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $49,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-05-17
   price $49,900 76-char remark

   Show marketing remark (76 chars)

   Needs TLC and fixer up. Could be a nice starter home or investment property.

7. 2026-05-11
   price $54,900 76-char remark

   Show marketing remark (76 chars)

   Needs TLC and fixer up. Could be a nice starter home or investment property.

8. 2026-04-21
   price $59,900 76-char remark

   Show marketing remark (76 chars)

   Needs TLC and fixer up. Could be a nice starter home or investment property.

9. 2026-04-10
   listed $69,900 Active 76-char remark

   Show marketing remark (76 chars)

   Needs TLC and fixer up. Could be a nice starter home or investment property.

10. 2025-07-09
    price $110,000
11. 2025-07-03
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $253 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $429 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$176/yr (+$15/mo · 69.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$253
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,125
• − Management: −$1,125
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $7,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,694
• After-tax cash flow: $5,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Christian County
• NCES district ID: 2101150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,961
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7118
• State rank: #93 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hopkinsville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #305
• US rank: #14474

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hopkinsville, KY
• County: Christian County · 51,080 people
• City population: 41,415
• Metro: Clarksville, TN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 41,415
• Household income: $51,534
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1475.0

Population outlook (Christian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,861 people
• By 2030: 65,808 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 60,090 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 54,561 · -19.6%
• By 2075: 45,859 · -32.4%
• By 2100: 38,310 · -43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 23% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Christian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.6% · R 66.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+28.4 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.36%
• Current HPI: 233.3958
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.61%
• Metro: Clarksville, TN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-63.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $49,900 HCTCBOR
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $54,900 HCTCBOR
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $59,900 HCTCBOR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $69,900 HCTCBOR
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $110,000 HCTCBOR
• 2025-07-03 Listed $135,000 HCTCBOR

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $253 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.