5535 Elmlawn Dr · Houston, TX 77033

$155,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1956 6,268 sqft lot Est $206k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience unparalleled luxury in this beautifully renovated retreat at Canyon Lakes At The Brazos. This home boasts cutting-edge upgrades including a new 30-year roof, Enjoy new granite countertops, a spacious pantry, and new Low E double-pane windows in the master bedroom. Revel in new tile flooring, plush carpeting, and recessed lighting throughout. With a brand-new electrical panel, this home exudes elegance and sophistication. Don't miss out on this opportunity to own a truly exquisite property.

Key facts

• New tile flooring
• Spacious pantry
• 30 year roof

Tags

• 30 YEAR ROOF
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• NEW TILE FLOORING
• PLUSH CARPETING
• RECESSED LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease considered: No

Exterior

• Parking: Garage parking; Detached or attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first level living); Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1956; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first level, approximately 6 x 14
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first level, approximately 10 x 12; Two additional bedrooms on the first level, approximately 8 x 11 and 8 x 9
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living room (first level), approximately 11 x 17; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,708/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.94%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5606 Elmlawn Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-9%)	8mo	$155,000	$116	74
5527 Lakefield Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,400 (-5%)	2mo	$240,000	$171	74
8918 Vinearbor St	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,400 (-5%)	3mo	$239,900	$171	69
5243 Greylog Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,479 (+1%)	5mo	$149,900	$101	55
5506 Elm Tree Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+4%)	1mo	$215,000	$140	50
5535 Cedarburg Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (+6%)	5mo	$105,000	$68	48
5614 Flamingo Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-8%)	7mo	$209,900	$155	46
4817 Wenda St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,310 (-11%)	1mo	$85,000	$65	46
5423 Grace Point Ln	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,612 (+10%)	6mo	$117,293	$73	44
5711 Thrush Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,684 (+15%)	0mo	$147,500	$88	42
5607 Flamingo Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-14%)	8mo	$225,000	$177	35
5727 Thrush Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,684 (+15%)	5mo	$255,000	$151	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,485
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $40,094
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,217/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	43d	1	0.22mi
5458 Osprey Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,595	$0.99	20d	1	0.52mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	24d	1	0.56mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	12d	1	0.63mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,480	$1.13	43d	1	0.65mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	24d	1	0.70mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	43d	1	0.71mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	14d	1	0.72mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	43d	1	0.80mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	0.82mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	18d	1	1.06mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	11d	1	1.06mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	3d	1	1.06mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	7d	1	1.06mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	11d	1	1.06mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 5659 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	11d	1	1.06mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	5d	1	1.06mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,281	$1.10	3d	1	1.06mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,081	$1.02	3d	1	1.06mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	1.09mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	43d	1	1.10mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	15d	1	1.14mi
6103 El Granate Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1755	$1,585	$0.90	24d	1	1.27mi
6107 El Granate Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,000	$0.84	5d	1	1.28mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	43d	1	1.34mi
5942 Ridgeway Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	43d	1	1.40mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	1.41mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   remarks 505-char remark
7. 2026-06-09
   listed $155,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,217 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$619/yr (+$52/mo · 27.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,217
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,035
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$248
• After-tax cash flow: $3,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+434.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2011-07-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-07-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-06-30 Listed $29,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,217 · -16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.