415 N Deer Creek Dr W · Leland, MS 38756

$139,700

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1930 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming home overlooking Deer Creek offers plenty of space with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, large den, dining room, sunroom, laundry room and more.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1.5-story; One story total
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($387/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#73 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Leland School District (town): math 5% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #117 of 130 in MS (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $966 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $140k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,152 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-20,539
• Equity at exit: $20,830

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-15,063
• Equity at exit: $12,079

Cash invested: $39,116 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38756

• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$733
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,556/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $139,700

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,925
• Closing costs: $4,191
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 143-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $139,700 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,556 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,556 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,825
• − Property taxes: −$2,556
• − Insurance: −$698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,259
• − Management: −$1,259
• − Depreciation: −$4,064
• Taxable loss: −$1,924
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$462
• After-tax cash flow: $849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leland School District
• NCES district ID: 2802610
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $30,773
• Composite: 7.75/100
• National rank: #9936
• State rank: #117 of 130 in MS

Livability — Leland

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #10033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leland, MS
• Population (ZIP): 6,568

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,424 people
• By 2030: 38,061 · -8.1%
• By 2040: 31,752 · -23.3%
• By 2050: 26,394 · -36.3%
• By 2075: 17,180 · -58.5%
• By 2100: 12,936 · -68.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 67.0% · R 32.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 34.7pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.4 2012: D+42.7 2008: D+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.23%
• Current HPI: 51.6345
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+64.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $139,700 Greenville Area MLS
• 2022-05-28 Price Changed $535 RENT.
• 2022-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-16 Sold (MLS) — Greenville Area MLS
• 2021-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-05 Listed $99,000 Greenville Area MLS
• 2016-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,556 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.