11816 Cresta Verde Dr Unit D · Maryland Heights, MO 63146

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Condo public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1968 $105/sqft · 14% below area Est $138k · 14% under $493/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy effortless living at 11816 Creste Verde Drive, ideally situated in the highly sought-after Villa Dorado community! This wonderful, low-maintenance first-floor condo is move-in ready with freshly painted walls and warm neutral carpeting. Its bright, open floor plan offers a seamless flow throughout its spacious 1,136 square feet of living space. The “L”-shaped living and dining areas are ideal for entertaining, featuring a focal glass sliding door that opens to a private covered patio. The sunny eat-in kitchen is a delight! It offers crisp white cabinetry, stylish tile backsplash, white appliance package (fridge too!) and large pantry. The spacious primary suite offers a la

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• First floor condo
• En suite bath

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR CONDO
• PRIVATE COVERED PATIO
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE BATH
• PRIVATE DEDICATED STORAGE AREA

Property features AI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.3% in Maryland Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Craig Elem. (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 389 students, 17% FRL); North High (math 35% / reading 70%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,074 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.00%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,486
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -14.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $83,701
• Equity at exit: $107,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.50×
• Total profit: $216,587
• Equity at exit: $231,191

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,300/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$493
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,614

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $456	-5% $422	+0% $389	+5% $355	+10% $321
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $305	+0% $389	+5% $472	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $449	-0.5pp $419	base $389	+0.5pp $358	+1.0pp $326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11864 Featherwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1460	$2,600	$1.78	2d	1	0.10mi
12401 Boulder Springs Pkwy St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,294	$2.28	2d	10	0.91mi
11164 De Malle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1146	$2,475	$2.16	12d	1	0.96mi
1895 Boulder Springs Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1083	$2,258	$2.09	2d	6	0.99mi
1007 E Rue De La Banque Creve Coeur, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	812	$1,425	$1.75	3d	4	1.27mi
1380 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,550	$1.70	15d	1	1.28mi
1432 Glenmeade Dr Maryland Heights, MO	3.0	2.0	1090	$2,176	$2.00	11d	1	1.35mi
1434 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,395	$1.53	44d	1	1.35mi
1951 Oberlin Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	993	$1,684	$1.70	2d	23	1.40mi
10900 Oak Forest Pkwy Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	4d	6	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $493 · $5,916/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $125,000 Active 1534-char remark
16. 2004-12-06
    soldstatus $111,000
17. 2000-04-19
    soldstatus $79,750
18. 2000-04-19
    soldstatus $79,750
19. 1990-04-01
    soldstatus
20. 1984-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,300 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,300 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,300
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − HOA: −$5,916
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $3,288
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$789
• After-tax cash flow: $3,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Maryland Heights

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6808

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 21,924
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+49.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $119,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $79,750 Public Records
• 2000-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $79,750 Public Records
• 1990-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,300 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.