1859 Calle Virginia N · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$254,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · Land · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home now available. This property offers a functional and inviting floor plan with comfortable living spaces throughout. LOTS of storage space. Conveniently located just minutes from the freeway, providing easy access to commuting routes. No HOA, offering added flexibility and fewer restrictions. Property may qualify for 0%USDA down financing (buyer to verify with lender). Schedule your private showing today by calling 520-841-2271.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: SCC - R-2

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 covered/carport space
• Security: Alarm installed; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water from local water company; Sewer connected; Electric service
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Stucco finish; Tile roof; Built recently (new construction)
• Exterior features: Patio; Decorative gravel; Elevated lot; Paved road access; Street lights; Walking trail

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range and oven; Microwave; Energy Star qualified dishwasher
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Energy Star qualified windows; Exhaust fan; Disposal; Smoke detector(s); Alarm installed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

🏗️ New construction. The $254,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $262,010.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Cayetano Elementary School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #810 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 393 students, 69% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $255k implies a 1600% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,227 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,010
• List price: $254,999
• Delta: -2.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $118,083
• Equity at exit: $236,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $367,167
• Equity at exit: $509,027

Cash invested: $73,363 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,802 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$328 /mo · $3,930/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,292

Max offer price $206,025

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-206	-5% $-296	+0% $-387	+5% $-477	+10% $-568
Rent	-10% $-529	-5% $-458	+0% $-387	+5% $-316	+10% $-245
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-320	base $-387	+0.5pp $-455	+1.0pp $-524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,502
• Closing costs: $7,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1859 Tijuana Ct Rio Rico, AZ	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,600	$1.30	3d	1	0.44mi
1878 Circulo Girasol Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,700	$1.07	3d	1	0.54mi
125 Alemania Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,500	$1.12	12d	1	1.12mi
117 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,500	$1.60	3d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,999 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,999 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   status $254,999 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,999 Active Contingent 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $254,999 484-char remark
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $255,000 Active 484-char remark
19. 2025-11-21
    soldstatus $15,000
20. 2016-08-30
    historical
21. 2015-08-16
    listed $10,000
22. 2015-04-30
    historical
23. 2014-04-10
    listed $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,677
• − Property taxes: −$3,930
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,730
• − Management: −$1,730
• − Depreciation: −$7,622
• Taxable loss: −$9,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,249
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2450.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-23 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $254,999 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-24 Listed $255,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2015-08-16 Listed $10,000 MLSSAZ
• 2015-04-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2014-04-10 Listed $10,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $133 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.