Ridgeland Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$225,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,427 sqft · SingleFamily · 111 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan shared between the family room, dining room and kitchen on the first level, while the second floor is occupied by three bedrooms - including the luxurious owner's suite featuring a private bathroom.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Family room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $225,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $255,035.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $226k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanco Vista El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $188,326 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.62%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,035
• List price: $225,999
• Delta: -11.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
184 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,427 (0%)	1mo	$219,999	$154	79
168 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,427 (0%)	2mo	$218,490	$153	78
134 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,427 (0%)	2mo	$214,490	$150	78
150 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+2%)	1mo	$215,999	$149	74
126 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+2%)	3mo	$223,490	$154	72
546 Sormonne Loop	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+2%)	4mo	$226,490	$156	70
125 Night Sky Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-1%)	4mo	$259,900	$184	65
187 Moonlight Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+6%)	2mo	$253,000	$167	55
456 Sormonne Loop	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-14%)	1mo	$194,999	$159	55
178 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-14%)	1mo	$198,490	$161	54
162 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-14%)	2mo	$195,490	$159	53
142 Meuse Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-14%)	2mo	$194,490	$158	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-64,314
• Equity at exit: $38,027

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-99,747
• Equity at exit: $22,051

Cash invested: $71,410 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1820
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,826/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $215,283

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-98	-5% $-187	+0% $-275	+5% $-363	+10% $-451
Rent	-10% $-423	-5% $-349	+0% $-275	+5% $-200	+10% $-126
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-210	base $-275	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,759
• Closing costs: $7,651
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	45d	1	0.13mi
1689 Woodlands Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$1,850	$1.22	45d	1	0.35mi
149 Red Sun Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,850	$1.30	12d	1	0.40mi
224 Blooming Trl Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,200	$1.45	19d	1	0.40mi
190 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	25d	1	0.47mi
147 Otter Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,850	$1.14	14d	1	0.51mi
148 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,800	$1.11	45d	1	0.57mi
160 Night Sky Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	6d	1	0.58mi
1441 Star Mdw Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,900	$1.18	0d	1	0.59mi
195 Salt Springs Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	19d	1	0.61mi
310 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,000	$1.25	6d	1	0.94mi
261 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1368	$1,849	$1.35	45d	1	1.20mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	4d	1	1.24mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	13d	1	1.24mi
187 Rummel Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,795	$1.45	45d	1	1.28mi
185 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,800	$1.31	13d	1	1.37mi
510 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1359	$1,695	$1.25	45d	1	1.37mi
270 Sheep Trail Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,785	$1.13	45d	1	1.42mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,895	$1.29	6d	1	1.42mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	1.44mi
273 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,795	$1.43	19d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,999 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,999 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $225,999 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,999 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,999 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,999 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,999 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,999 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,999 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,999 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,999 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,999 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,999 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,999 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,999 Active 90 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,286
• − Property taxes: −$3,826
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − Depreciation: −$7,419
• Taxable loss: −$7,823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,877
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B