3408 Valley St St · Catlettsburg, KY 41129

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1921

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeler's project. Home is located convenient to 23, 64, Catlettsburg, and Ashland.

Key facts

• New doors
• New hvac
• New roof

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DOORS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; 2 stories; 1,426 above-grade finished area
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Level lot; Shed(s) on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedrooms included in room count)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Electric range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $94k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $82k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.4% in Catlettsburg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#187 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Boyd County (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #115 of 165 in KY (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Catlettsburg Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 209 students, 80% FRL); Boyd County Middle School (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #161 of 217 statewide, top 75%, 620 students, 55% FRL); Boyd County High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 911 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 45% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Boyd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Boyd County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $130k implies a 550% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,949 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.26%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $19,198
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3516 Valley St	0.10mi	2/1.0	748 (+13%)	14mo	$22,000	$29	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $309
• Equity at exit: $59,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $22,749
• Equity at exit: $91,474

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41129

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $819 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $93,679

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-161	-5% $-205	+0% $-250	+5% $-295	+10% $-340
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-283	+0% $-250	+5% $-218	+10% $-186
Rate	-1.0pp $-185	-0.5pp $-217	base $-250	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,900 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $129,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 35 DOM
19. 2026-04-25
    listed $134,900 Active
20. 2024-02-23
    soldstatus $20,000 Closed 85-char remark

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Remodeler's project. Home is located convenient to 23, 64, Catlettsburg, and Ashland.

21. 2024-02-23
    soldstatus $20,000 Closed 85-char remark

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Remodeler's project. Home is located convenient to 23, 64, Catlettsburg, and Ashland.

22. 2024-02-12
    status Pending 85-char remark

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Remodeler's project. Home is located convenient to 23, 64, Catlettsburg, and Ashland.

23. 2024-02-12
    historical Active Under Contract 85-char remark

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Remodeler's project. Home is located convenient to 23, 64, Catlettsburg, and Ashland.

24. 2024-01-11
    listed $32,500 Active 85-char remark

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Remodeler's project. Home is located convenient to 23, 64, Catlettsburg, and Ashland.

25. 2024-01-11
    listed $32,500 Active 85-char remark

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    Remodeler's project. Home is located convenient to 23, 64, Catlettsburg, and Ashland.

26. 2024-01-09
    listed $32,500 Active
27. 2023-06-07
    status Active
28. 2023-05-30
    historical Active Under Contract
29. 2023-05-12
    listed $35,000 Active
30. 1995-01-11
    soldstatus $9,000
31. 1992-05-08
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$787
• − Management: −$787
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$5,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,294
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boyd County
• NCES district ID: 2100620
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $47,479
• Composite: 24.65/100
• National rank: #7625
• State rank: #115 of 165 in KY

Livability — Catlettsburg

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #9459

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Catlettsburg, KY
• Population (ZIP): 8,417

Population outlook (Boyd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,137 people
• By 2030: 44,585 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 41,442 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 38,313 · -17.0%
• By 2075: 31,077 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 23,432 · -49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Boyd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 30.0% · R 68.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.09%
• Current HPI: 265.4897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+2148.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $134,900 AABOR
• 2024-02-23 Sold (MLS) $20,000 AABOR
• 2024-02-23 Sold (MLS) $20,000 EKAR
• 2024-02-12 Pending — EKAR
• 2024-02-12 Contingent — AABOR
• 2024-01-11 Listed $32,500 AABOR
• 2024-01-11 Listed $32,500 EKAR
• 2024-01-09 Listed $32,500 AABOR
• 2023-06-07 Relisted — AABOR
• 2023-05-30 Contingent — AABOR
• 2023-05-12 Listed $35,000 AABOR
• 1995-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records
• 1992-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $128 · -33.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.