2504 30th St · Lubbock, TX 79410

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1943 8,400 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom, 2.5 Bath in Tech Terrace rented until July 28, 2026 for 1,200. Good rent property!!

Key facts

• 8,400 sq ft lot
• Built 1943
• Listed 115 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected / available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Asbestos construction materials; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1,280 sq ft above grade
• Exterior features: Private yard; Patio; Fenced backyard; Corner lot with front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Free-standing range; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Storage; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,233
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $16,919
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79410

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,838/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $165	+0% $126	+5% $88	+10% $50
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $70	+0% $126	+5% $183	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $161	base $126	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2430 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.06mi
2518 30th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1558	$1,750	$1.12	21d	1	0.08mi
2420 30th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,100	$1.01	21d	1	0.11mi
2419 31st St Apt B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	878	$795	$0.91	14d	1	0.12mi
2416 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,425	$0.82	21d	1	0.13mi
2411 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,000	$1.00	21d	1	0.16mi
2613 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	0.17mi
2614 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,650	$1.07	44d	1	0.17mi
2602 28th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	937	$1,095	$1.17	21d	1	0.17mi
2512 26th St Unit 1706 Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	986	$700	$0.71	44d	1	0.26mi
2315 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	21d	1	0.28mi
2606 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1162	$1,395	$1.20	44d	1	0.29mi
2404 27th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1250	$1,349	$1.08	44d	1	0.29mi
2701 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	0.30mi
2421 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,575	$1.53	21d	1	0.32mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	21d	1	0.32mi
2620 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1282	$1,600	$1.25	44d	1	0.38mi
2404 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,395	$1.08	21d	1	0.38mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	44d	1	0.43mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	21d	1	0.43mi
2311 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	21d	1	0.44mi
2511 23rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1428	$1,500	$1.05	21d	1	0.44mi
2211 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1293	$1,200	$0.93	44d	1	0.44mi
2405 23rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1042	$895	$0.86	21d	1	0.46mi
2818 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,125	$1.08	21d	1	0.46mi
2616 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	21d	1	0.47mi
2201 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1246	$995	$0.80	21d	1	0.47mi
2518 23rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	44d	1	0.47mi
2823 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1105	$950	$0.86	44d	1	0.49mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	14d	1	0.50mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	44d	1	0.50mi
2403 22nd Pl Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1066	$900	$0.84	21d	1	0.51mi
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	44d	1	0.51mi
2119 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1055	$950	$0.90	44d	1	0.51mi
2220 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1077	$695	$0.65	21d	1	0.51mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	44d	1	0.53mi
3007 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1353	$1,325	$0.98	21d	1	0.53mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	44d	1	0.54mi
2115 27th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1148	$875	$0.76	21d	1	0.55mi
3016 30th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	947	$975	$1.03	44d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-04
   historical $1,400
2. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-06
   status Active
4. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-03
   price $135,000
6. 2026-01-16
   price $1,400
7. 2025-12-18
   listed $140,000 Active
8. 2025-11-05
   listed $1,500
9. 2025-04-25
   historical $1,500
10. 2024-11-06
    listed $1,500
11. 2024-08-08
    historical $1,300
12. 2024-06-27
    price $1,300
13. 2024-05-09
    listed $1,600
14. 2024-01-16
    price $199,900
15. 2023-12-12
    price $203,900
16. 2021-05-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,838 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,838 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,838
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$149
• After-tax cash flow: $1,666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,137
• Household income: $44,537
• Rent vs Own: 67.7% rent · 32.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1068.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.78%
• Current HPI: 272.7482
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Rental Removed $1,400 BUILDIUM
• 2026-04-29 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $135,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $1,400 BUILDIUM
• 2025-12-18 Listed $140,000 LARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed for Rent $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2025-04-25 Rental Removed $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2024-11-06 Listed for Rent $1,500 BUILDIUM
• 2024-08-08 Rental Removed $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2024-06-27 Price Changed $1,300 BUILDIUM
• 2024-05-09 Listed for Rent $1,600 BUILDIUM
• 2024-01-16 Price Changed $199,900 LARMLS
• 2023-12-12 Price Changed $203,900 LARMLS
• 2021-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,838 · -7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.