106 Collins Ct · Kendleton, TX 77451

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,001 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 2018 0.32 ac lot $175/sqft · 20% above area Est $146k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Proud to present 106 Collins Court! Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac, this charming 3 bedroom, 2 full bath offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and privacy. Step inside to find an open concept floor plan characterized by abundance of natural light. Beautifully maintained residence welcomes you with manicured landscaping, sitting on a generous 14,147 sqft lot. Fully fenced backyard with enough room to design a massive custom deck, a covered outdoor kitchen, or even a swimming pool while still leaving plenty of green space for play. Schedule your private tour today and experience the charm for yourself!

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Custom deck
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• MANICURED LANDSCAPING
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CUSTOM DECK
• COVERED OUTDOOR KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 6.2% in Kendleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.11%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,831
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 20.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14119 Willie Melton Blvd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,001 (0%)	11mo	$215,000	$215	89
13726 Willie Melton Blvd	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,048 (+5%)	9mo	$145,000	$138	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $132,776
• Equity at exit: $100,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.58×
• Total profit: $322,194
• Equity at exit: $173,958

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77451

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,615/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $1,434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13218 HP Johnson St Unit A Kendleton, TX	3.0	2.5	1364	$3,450	$2.53	1d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    price $175,000 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Proud to present 106 Collins Court! Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac, this charming 3 bedroom, 2 full bath offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and privacy. Step inside to find an open concept floor plan characterized by abundance of natural light. Beautifully maintained residence welcomes you with manicured landscaping, sitting on a generous 14,147 sqft lot. Fully fenced backyard with enough room to design a massive custom deck, a covered outdoor kitchen, or even a swimming pool while still leaving plenty of green space for play. Schedule your private tour today and experience the charm for yourself!

15. 2026-04-01
    listed $185,000 Active 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Proud to present 106 Collins Court! Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac, this charming 3 bedroom, 2 full bath offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and privacy. Step inside to find an open concept floor plan characterized by abundance of natural light. Beautifully maintained residence welcomes you with manicured landscaping, sitting on a generous 14,147 sqft lot. Fully fenced backyard with enough room to design a massive custom deck, a covered outdoor kitchen, or even a swimming pool while still leaving plenty of green space for play. Schedule your private tour today and experience the charm for yourself!

16. 2019-03-01
    soldstatus Sold 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Completion date is March 2019. 1001-A NEW single-story garage home! The home features an open great room and kitchen. Additionally, there is an owner's suite with private bath, 2 more bedrooms and another full bath. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary. Lowest price guaranteed.

17. 2019-01-29
    status Pending 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Completion date is March 2019. 1001-A NEW single-story garage home! The home features an open great room and kitchen. Additionally, there is an owner's suite with private bath, 2 more bedrooms and another full bath. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary. Lowest price guaranteed.

18. 2019-01-03
    listed $100,990 Active 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Completion date is March 2019. 1001-A NEW single-story garage home! The home features an open great room and kitchen. Additionally, there is an owner's suite with private bath, 2 more bedrooms and another full bath. Haggle free pricing. No negotiation necessary. Lowest price guaranteed.

19. 2018-10-29
    status Pending
20. 2018-10-29
    historical
21. 2018-10-20
    price $94,990
22. 2018-10-13
    price $96,990
23. 2018-06-20
    listed $100,990 Active
24. 2018-06-14
    soldstatus
25. 2017-12-31
    historical
26. 2017-11-09
    price $10,000
27. 2017-01-06
    status Active
28. 2016-12-24
    status Pending
29. 2016-12-07
    status Option Pending
30. 2016-06-28
    status Active
31. 2016-05-18
    historical
32. 2015-11-24
    listed $6,600 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,615 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,615 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,615
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,312
• − Management: −$3,312
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $15,392
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,694
• After-tax cash flow: $13,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kendleton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 510

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% Hispanic / Latino 47% Two or more races 29%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.10%
• Current HPI: 153.2946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2551.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-01-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-01-03 Listed $100,990 HARMLS
• 2018-10-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-10-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-10-20 Price Changed $94,990 HARMLS
• 2018-10-13 Price Changed $96,990 HARMLS
• 2018-06-20 Listed $100,990 HARMLS
• 2018-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-11-09 Price Changed $10,000 HARMLS
• 2017-01-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-12-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-12-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-06-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-11-24 Listed $6,600 HARMLS

Property tax history

+23.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,615 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.