Mayfair Plan · Wilmington, OH 45177

$313,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,643 sqft · SingleFamily · 282 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting home offers approximately 1,643 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with 9-foot ceilings and a split-bedroom layout for added privacy. The open kitchen features an included island, pantry, and 42-inch tall wall cabinets, flowing seamlessly into a spacious great room with ample wall space. The grand bedroom includes a private bathroom with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a huge walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a hall linen closet, first-floor laundry, and a two-car garage. Depending on the community, choose between an optional slab or basement foundation, combining comfort, functionality, and modern design.

Key facts

• 9-ft ceilings
• Split-bedroom layout
• First floor laundry

Tags

• 9-FT CEILINGS
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• OPEN KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY

🏗️ New construction. The $313,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,894.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $313k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $313k).
• Recommended offer: $275k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 6.2% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in OH, #3,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Wilmington City (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #492 of 656 in OH (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 119 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,118/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $275,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.97%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,894
• List price: $313,000
• Delta: -2.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1181 Blue Spruce Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-9%)	1mo	$304,000	$203	80
1206 Timber Glen Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-11%)	2mo	$292,500	$199	78
1268 Timber Glen Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-9%)	7mo	$299,900	$201	77
1244 Timber Glen Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-14%)	18mo	$269,900	$191	60
1300 Blue Spruce Ln	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,797 (+9%)	14mo	$426,244	$237	60
432 Red Maple Ln	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,802 (+10%)	12mo	$449,940	$250	57
21 Garden Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,853 (+13%)	11mo	$314,900	$170	43
1985 St Rt 730	0.71mi	3/3.0	1,860 (+13%)	4mo	$305,000	$164	38
434 Randolph St	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,472 (-10%)	15mo	$227,500	$155	37
641 Norman St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+10%)	21mo	$204,500	$114	33
1147 Southridge Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-12%)	21mo	$189,900	$132	31
719 Bernice St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-12%)	22mo	$120,000	$83	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $14,617
• Equity at exit: $47,697

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $98,469
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,570 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45177

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,798/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$865
• Net cashflow: $1,042

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,798

Max offer price $319,894

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,974
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	3d	1	0.71mi
121 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	3d	1	0.72mi
229 Taylor Dr Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,000	$1.61	11d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $313,000 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $313,000 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $313,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $313,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $313,000 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $313,000 Active 274 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $313,000 Active 273 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $313,000 Active 272 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $313,000 Active 271 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $313,000 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $313,000 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $313,000 Active 266 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $313,000 Active 265 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $313,000 Active 264 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $313,000 Active 263 DOM
16. 2026-02-24
    price $313,000 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    This inviting home offers approximately 1,643 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with 9-foot ceilings and a split-bedroom layout for added privacy. The open kitchen features an included island, pantry, and 42-inch tall wall cabinets, flowing seamlessly into a spacious great room with ample wall space. The grand bedroom includes a private bathroom with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a huge walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a hall linen closet, first-floor laundry, and a two-car garage. Depending on the community, choose between an optional slab or basement foundation, combining comfort, functionality, and modern design.

17. 2025-09-09
    listed $306,800 Active 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    This inviting home offers approximately 1,643 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with 9-foot ceilings and a split-bedroom layout for added privacy. The open kitchen features an included island, pantry, and 42-inch tall wall cabinets, flowing seamlessly into a spacious great room with ample wall space. The grand bedroom includes a private bathroom with a tub-shower unit, vanity, and a huge walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a hall linen closet, first-floor laundry, and a two-car garage. Depending on the community, choose between an optional slab or basement foundation, combining comfort, functionality, and modern design.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$4,798
• − Insurance: −$1,599
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,953
• − Management: −$3,953
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable income: $7,885
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,892
• After-tax cash flow: $10,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This inviting home offers a good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint to enhance its curb appeal and increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilmington City
• NCES district ID: 3904511
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,201
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4020
• State rank: #492 of 656 in OH

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #3127

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilmington, OH
• County: Clinton · 46,911 people
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $70,483
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9.5

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,352 people
• By 2030: 40,831 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 39,049 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 36,408 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 29,652 · -28.3%
• By 2100: 20,736 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.6) · D 22.3% · R 76.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.3pp · 2024: -54.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.6 2020: R+52.6 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+35.2 2008: R+30.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.35%
• Current HPI: 238.9182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $313,000 Zillow
• 2025-09-09 Listed $306,800 Zillow