126 Deer Creek Cv · Madison, MS 39110

$284,500

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,342 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2004 0.34 ac lot Est $489k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 3 bedroom and 2.5 bathroom available in Devlin Springs! This home features an open floor plan with up to date lighting and fixtures, Granite countertops in kitchen with a large center island and stainless steel appliances, ceramic tile in the main living area, laundry room with sink, master bath with double vanities, separate shower and a walk in closet with plenty of room. Love Golf? You will LOVE the backyard. Not only is it a larger back yard but you a have your own PUTTING GREEN golfing area. It also has a basketball court and a padded area ready for a play ground set or anything you want! Great house! Call your Realtor today because this one will not stay long.

Key facts

• Picture windows
• Open floorplan
• Entry foyer

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• ENTRY FOYER
• GREATROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• FRENCH DOORS
• PICTURE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; fees paid semi-annually; association provides management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener and storage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available (natural gas in kitchen)
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One level; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Brick patio/slab; Back yard fencing; Basketball court; Landscaped yard; Wooded areas; Pie-shaped lot; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop (gas cooktop); Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (total 2.5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas) and fireplace(s); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Recessed lighting; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); French doors; Blinds, drapes and other window treatments; Has fireplace (Great Room)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups and utility sink; Gas water heater / Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $284k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.8% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mannsdale Elementary (633 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,410 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.76%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $489,478
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
83 Brisco St	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,258 (-4%)	4mo	$409,999	$182	64
113 Claiborne St	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,186 (-7%)	2mo	$389,900	$178	61
132 Hartfield Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,438 (+4%)	1mo	$365,000	$150	59
828 Thornberry Rdg	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,411 (+3%)	1mo	$533,900	$221	56
901 Briarcrest Ct	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,501 (+7%)	5mo	$523,000	$209	53
138 Camden Lake Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,466 (+5%)	7mo	$457,500	$186	51
107 Camden Lake Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,612 (+12%)	1mo	$459,900	$176	49
142 Camden Shrs	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,520 (+8%)	3mo	$550,000	$218	48
116 Hallmark Pl	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,430 (+4%)	7mo	$360,000	$148	47
831 Thornberry Rdg	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,559 (+9%)	4mo	$568,098	$222	43
822 Thornberry Rdg	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,625 (+12%)	2mo	$582,750	$222	40
833 Thornberry Rdg	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,625 (+12%)	3mo	$582,750	$222	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-31,294
• Equity at exit: $42,420

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-11,194
• Equity at exit: $24,598

Cash invested: $79,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,554 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,492
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,893/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,238

Max offer price $284,500

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $330	+0% $249	+5% $169	+10% $88
Rent	-10% $48	-5% $149	+0% $249	+5% $350	+10% $451
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $322	base $249	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,125
• Closing costs: $8,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Mason Way Madison, MS	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,600	$1.61	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $284,500 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,500 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $284,500 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
6. 2026-05-19
   listed $284,500 Active
7. 2021-10-08
   historical
8. 2021-05-03
   soldstatus
9. 2021-04-30
   soldstatus 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Adorable 3 bedroom and 2.5 bathroom available in Devlin Springs! This home features an open floor plan with up to date lighting and fixtures, Granite countertops in kitchen with a large center island and stainless steel appliances, ceramic tile in the main living area, laundry room with sink, master bath with double vanities, separate shower and a walk in closet with plenty of room. Love Golf? You will LOVE the backyard. Not only is it a larger back yard but you a have your own PUTTING GREEN golfing area. It also has a basketball court and a padded area ready for a play ground set or anything you want! Great house! Call your Realtor today because this one will not stay long.

10. 2021-03-22
    listed $232,500 683-char remark

    Show marketing remark (683 chars)

    Adorable 3 bedroom and 2.5 bathroom available in Devlin Springs! This home features an open floor plan with up to date lighting and fixtures, Granite countertops in kitchen with a large center island and stainless steel appliances, ceramic tile in the main living area, laundry room with sink, master bath with double vanities, separate shower and a walk in closet with plenty of room. Love Golf? You will LOVE the backyard. Not only is it a larger back yard but you a have your own PUTTING GREEN golfing area. It also has a basketball court and a padded area ready for a play ground set or anything you want! Great house! Call your Realtor today because this one will not stay long.

11. 2016-12-29
    soldstatus
12. 2016-12-16
    soldstatus
13. 2016-10-21
    listed $195,000
14. 2009-01-15
    soldstatus
15. 2008-09-07
    listed $189,000
16. 2004-03-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,893 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,248 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$30/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,936
• − Property taxes: −$1,893
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,452
• − Management: −$2,452
• − Depreciation: −$8,276
• Taxable loss: −$1,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$428
• After-tax cash flow: $3,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+50.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-19 Listed $284,500 MLSU
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-03-22 Listed $232,500 MLSU
• 2016-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-12-16 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-10-21 Listed $195,000 MLSU
• 2009-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-09-07 Listed $189,000 MLSU
• 2004-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,893 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.