1721 Emma Pearl · Paloma Creek South, TX 75068

$345,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,275 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2018 8,015 sqft lot $105/sqft · 29% below area Est $487k · 29% under $92/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Built in buffet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE BREAKFAST BAR ISLAND
• BUILT IN BUFFET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,039 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,726 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.07%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $487,491
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -23.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1604 George Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5	3,427 (+5%)	0mo	$429,900	$125	84
1404 Kittyhawk Dr	0.32mi	4/3.5	3,409 (+4%)	3mo	$400,000	$117	74
1832 Ringtail Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,877 (-12%)	2mo	$355,000	$123	64
937 Horizon Ridge Cir	0.20mi	4/3.5	2,821 (-14%)	5mo	$310,000	$110	62
1404 Canary Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,877 (-12%)	3mo	$365,000	$127	61
1728 Flamingo Dr	0.40mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,000 (-8%)	2mo	$349,000	$116	59
641 Lake Cove Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,875 (-12%)	3mo	$425,000	$148	58
1717 Roadrunner Dr	0.64mi	4/4.0	3,455 (+6%)	1mo	$599,000	$173	56
928 Freesia Dr	0.56mi	4/3.5	3,535 (+8%)	3mo	$499,900	$141	56
1225 Roadrunner Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,841 (-13%)	4mo	$380,000	$134	55
1308 Audubon Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,783 (-15%)	3mo	$419,900	$151	48
2612 Castle Creek Dr	0.69mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,743 (+14%)	3mo	$475,000	$127	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-95,703
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-156,909
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,098 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$891 /mo · $10,690/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,716

Max offer price $258,726

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
700 Sedona St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	3693	$3,500	$0.95	43d	1	0.04mi
905 Sedona St Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2456	$3,200	$1.30	18d	1	0.11mi
1716 Ringtail Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2998	$2,730	$0.91	43d	1	0.18mi
1808 Ringtail Dr Little Elm, TX	5.0	3.0	2800	$3,390	$1.21	4d	1	0.20mi
1708 Kittyhawk Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,700	$0.92	18d	1	0.23mi
1820 Rosson Rd Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2980	$3,475	$1.17	24d	1	0.28mi
1412 Kittyhawk Dr Little Elm, TX	5.0	3.5	2928	$3,500	$1.20	17d	1	0.31mi
1705 Nighthawk Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2998	$3,249	$1.08	6d	1	0.31mi
601 Hummingbird Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2868	$7,500	$2.62	43d	1	0.31mi
404 Hummingbird Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	3447	$2,800	$0.81	24d	1	0.36mi
1200 Pigeon Hawk Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	2510	$2,695	$1.07	43d	1	0.36mi
1928 Michelle Creek Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2409	$2,450	$1.02	43d	1	0.37mi
1220 Upland Dove Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	4.5	3430	$3,200	$0.93	43d	1	0.42mi
1809 Turtledove Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2673	$2,366	$0.89	2d	1	0.43mi
1413 Wood Duck Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.0	3283	$3,200	$0.97	43d	1	0.45mi
1129 Quail Dove Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	3125	$2,795	$0.89	20d	1	0.51mi
904 Sunset Haven Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	4.5	3300	$3,200	$0.97	43d	1	0.51mi
1501 Lake Grove Dr Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	3361	$3,100	$0.92	20d	1	0.54mi
608 Partridge Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$2,600	$1.05	43d	1	0.66mi
1220 Mockingbird Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	3009	$3,000	$1.00	18d	1	0.71mi
2208 Gregory Creek Dr Little Elm, TX	5.0	2.5	3262	$2,900	$0.89	18d	1	0.72mi
1305 Rembrandt Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2363	$2,490	$1.05	18d	1	0.76mi
721 Kinghaven Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	3500	$3,145	$0.90	18d	1	0.78mi
1237 Mallard Crk Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2761	$6,200	$2.25	43d	1	0.78mi
1356 Francesca Dr Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.0	3479	$3,300	$0.95	43d	1	0.79mi
850 Warbler Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2338	$2,350	$1.01	43d	1	0.80mi
1713 Lake Pine Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2792	$2,500	$0.90	43d	1	0.84mi
1420 Abby Creek Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2800	$3,299	$1.18	2d	1	0.85mi
925 Warbler Aubrey, TX	5.0	3.5	3055	$3,395	$1.11	43d	1	0.89mi
1817 Heron Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2673	$2,599	$0.97	7d	1	0.91mi
1016 Aviary Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2583	$2,500	$0.97	43d	1	0.95mi
2024 Gayla Creek Dr Little Elm, TX	5.0	3.5	3315	$2,900	$0.87	43d	1	1.02mi
956 Lost Mine Trl Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2498	$2,690	$1.08	43d	1	1.07mi
1616 Lake Way Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2926	$2,600	$0.89	20d	1	1.07mi
1072 Aviary Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2583	$2,445	$0.95	12d	1	1.07mi
936 Apeldoorn Trl Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2416	$2,650	$1.10	12d	1	1.08mi
813 Lake Forest Trl Little Elm, TX	5.0	3.5	2701	$2,600	$0.96	24d	1	1.09mi
937 Lost Mine Trl Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.5	2498	$2,700	$1.08	24d	1	1.09mi
845 Lake Meadow Ln Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.5	2437	$2,550	$1.05	7d	1	1.09mi
1121 Golden Eagle Ct Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,600	$1.11	43d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $345,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active Contingent 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,000 Active Contingent 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,000 Active Contingent 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $345,000 Active Contingent 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $345,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $345,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $345,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $345,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-04-10
    price $372,040 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    This property offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms

11. 2026-02-26
    listed $393,000 Active 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    This property offers 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms

12. 2025-07-31
    historical
13. 2025-06-27
    price $508,000
14. 2025-05-28
    price $515,000
15. 2025-05-08
    price $518,000
16. 2025-04-10
    listed $525,000 Active
17. 2023-12-05
    soldstatus
18. 2023-12-04
    soldstatus Closed
19. 2023-11-05
    status Pending
20. 2023-10-30
    historical Active Option Contract
21. 2023-10-26
    price $463,000
22. 2023-09-14
    price $473,000
23. 2023-08-31
    price $481,000
24. 2023-07-27
    price $491,000
25. 2023-07-11
    listed $499,000 Active
26. 2023-06-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,690 · $891/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,690 · $891/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$10,690
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,974
• − Management: −$2,974
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$11,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,797
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paloma Creek South

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1039
• US rank: #18503

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paloma Creek South, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $372,040 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $393,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $508,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $515,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $518,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $525,000 NTREIS
• 2023-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-11-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-10-30 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-10-26 Price Changed $463,000 NTREIS
• 2023-09-14 Price Changed $473,000 NTREIS
• 2023-08-31 Price Changed $481,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-27 Price Changed $491,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-11 Listed $499,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+40.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,690 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.