654 Bushy Trail Loop SW · Supply, NC
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $906 – $1,684
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +9.1/15.0
- Cash flow +6.1/30.0
- Schools +4.3/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- 1% rule +1.8/10.0
- DSCR +0.5/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$289,990
654 Bushy Trail Loop SW · Supply, NC 28462
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily
· 136 Days on market
Built 2026
7,405 sqft lot
2-car garage
$179/sqft
· at area comps
Est $301k · at est.
$89/mo HOA · 5% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Come tour 654 BUSHY TRAIL LOOP SW! One of our new homes at Fox Run, located in Supply, North Carolina. The Aria is a thoughtfully designed home with three bedrooms and two bathrooms all on one level. This open concept plan is perfect for entertaining and making lasting memories. The kitchen island looks out over the spacious family room and is a great place for easy food preparation. The split bedroom design places the owner's suite separate from the secondary bedrooms. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet and spacious bath with a double vanity. All of our homes include D. R. Horton's Home is Connected® package, an industry leading suite of smart home products that keeps homeowners connected with the people and place they value the most. The technology allows homeowners to monitor and control their home from the couch or across the globe. * The photos you see here are for illustration purposes only, interior and exterior features, options, colors and selections will differ. Please see sales agent for options.
Key facts
- Spacious pantry
- Granite countertops
- Tile backsplash
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-539 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (26.9% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (32.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $197k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Supply Elementary (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #625 of 1,410 statewide, top 45%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 675 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$196,666
(32.2% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.68% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.06%
- Cash-on-cash
- -7.97%
- DSCR
- 0.65
- GRM
- 12.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $301,000
- List price
- $289,990
- Delta
- -3.54%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 4 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 661 Bushy Trail Loop SW | 0.04mi | 3/2.0 | 1,672 (+3%) | 1mo | $302,000 | $181 | 92 |
| 1842 Wood Duck St SW | 0.38mi | 3/2.0 | 1,563 (-3%) | 9mo | $240,000 | $154 | 69 |
| 2762 Emily Ln SW | 1.46mi | 3/2.0 | 1,610 (-0%) | 0mo | $305,000 | $189 | 64 |
| 1449 Holden Beach Rd SW | 0.64mi | 3/2.0 | 1,571 (-3%) | 3mo | $300,000 | $191 | 62 |
| 1901 Oxpen Rd SW | 1.39mi | 3/2.0 | 1,550 (-4%) | 1mo | $295,000 | $190 | 57 |
| 1660 White Duck Ct SW | 0.66mi | 3/2.0 | 1,450 (-10%) | 2mo | $252,000 | $174 | 50 |
| 1667 White Duck Ct SW | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 | 1,509 (-7%) | 9mo | $199,900 | $132 | 50 |
| 1853 Pintail Ave SW | 0.60mi | 3/2.0 | 1,824 (+13%) | 8mo | $235,000 | $129 | 44 |
| 1856 Oxpen Rd SW | 1.35mi | 3/2.0 | 1,404 (-13%) | 2mo | $230,000 | $164 | 41 |
| 2232 Lakeside Ave SW | 1.36mi | 3/2.0 | 1,248 (-23%) | 6mo | $193,000 | $155 | 35 |
| 2003 Trout Ave SW | 1.05mi | 3/2.0 | 1,974 (+22%) | 8mo | $253,000 | $128 | 34 |
| 1360 Sweetwater Ln SW | 1.32mi | 3/2.5 | 1,984 (+23%) | 8mo | $389,000 | $196 | 31 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -30.2%
- Equity multiple
- -0.00×
- Total profit
- $-81,261
- Equity at exit
- $43,238
10-year hold
- IRR
- -31.8%
- Equity multiple
- -0.41×
- Total profit
- $-114,654
- Equity at exit
- $25,073
Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State North Carolina
- 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 26 active · 8 under contract
- Months of supply
- 78.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $273,248 ($175/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 83 d
- This list price
- 73% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +6.4% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 28462
- Active inventory
- 675
- Price-to-rent
- 12.3×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,967 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,521
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
- Insurance
- −$121
- HOA
- −$89
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$413
- Net cashflow
- $-539
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,649
Max offer price
$211,939
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-339 | -5% $-439 | +0% $-539 | +5% $-640 | +10% $-740 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-695 | -5% $-617 | +0% $-539 | +5% $-462 | +10% $-384 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-393 | -0.5pp $-466 | base $-539 | +0.5pp $-615 | +1.0pp $-691 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $72,498
- Closing costs
- $8,700
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Subdivision: Fox Run
- HOA & community
- Homeowners association with professional managementAnnual HOA fee of $1,068 (approximately $89/month)Community poolSidewalksStreet lights
Exterior
- Parking
- 2 total parking spacesAttached 2-car garageGarage faces frontConcrete drivewayGarage door opener
- Security
- Smoke detectors
- Utilities
- Public waterSewer availableUnderground utilitiesWater availableElectric service
- Home design
- Single-family residenceOne-story homeEntry level is main floorNew construction
- Construction
- Vinyl siding and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationHome warranty included
- Exterior features
- Covered front and rear porchFront porchRear porchCorner lotPaved private road frontageHas viewNo fencing indicated
Interior
- Kitchen
- RefrigeratorRangeDishwasherMicrowaveGarbage disposalENERGY STAR qualified appliancesElectric water heaterKitchen islandPantry
- Bedrooms
- Master downstairs
- Flooring
- Carpet
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathroomsAccessible full bath
- Heating & cooling
- Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHeat pump coolingProgrammable thermostat
- Interior features
- Master bedroom located on the main levelWalk-in closet(s)High ceilingsEntrance foyerKitchen islandPantryUnfurnished
- Laundry & utility
- Washer hookupDedicated laundry room
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $289,990 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $289,990 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $289,990 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $289,990 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $289,990 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $289,990 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $289,990 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-09-17pricedays on market $289,990 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $290,340 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $290,340 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $290,340 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $290,340 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $290,340 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $290,340 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $290,340 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $290,340 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $290,340 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $290,340 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $290,340 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $290,340 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $290,340 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $290,340 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $290,340 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $290,340 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $290,340 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $290,340 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $290,340 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $290,340 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $290,340 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $290,340 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $290,340 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $290,340 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $290,340 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $290,340 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $290,340 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $290,340 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $290,340 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $290,340 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $290,340 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $290,340 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $290,340 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $290,340 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $290,340 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $290,340 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $290,340 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $290,340 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $290,340 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $290,340 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $290,340 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $290,340 Active 74 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $23,600
- − Mortgage interest
- −$16,244
- − Property taxes
- −$4,350
- − Insurance
- −$1,450
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,888
- − Management
- −$1,888
- − HOA
- −$1,068
- − Depreciation
- −$8,436
- Taxable loss
- −$11,724
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,814
- After-tax cash flow
- $-3,659/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos
80/100
None rehab
This single-family home in Fox Run is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a well-maintained exterior and interior, and is ready for a fresh paint job and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
- Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
- Both Upgrading appliances — Upgrading to more energy-efficient or modern appliances can increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Supply Elementary
F
NC #625/1,410
Nat'l #17,692/41,679
Middle
Cedar Grove Middle
F
NC #305/475
Nat'l #8,059/14,009
High
West Brunswick High
C-
NC #281/535
Nat'l #4,893/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Brunswick County Schools
- NCES district ID
- 3700420
- Math proficiency
- 45% ▲ 4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 47% ▲ 4.00%
- Median HH income
- $47,494
- Composite
- 39.23/100
- National rank
- #4011
- State rank
- #82 of 178 in NC
Livability — Supply
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- County
- Brunswick County · 152,111 people
- City population
- 12,340
- Metro
- Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
- Population (ZIP)
- 12,340
- Household income
- $60,349
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 10% of renters
Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 152,111 people
- By 2030
- 165,705 · +8.9%
- By 2040
- 188,494 · +23.9%
- By 2050
- 206,228 · +35.6%
- By 2075
- 237,876 · +56.4%
- By 2100
- 251,451 · +65.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (87%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 1% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 99% English-only · Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -259.44%
- Current HPI
- 144.2462
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 26
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 2 | $213B |
|
||
| Retail | 2 | $95B |
|
||
| Industrial Conglomerate | 1 | $38B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Utilities | 1 | $30B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 1 | $19B |
|
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Price history
+0.0% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-19 Listed $290,340 Zillow
- 2026-05-11 Listed $290,340 Hive MLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…