1400 N Tully Rd #180 · Turlock, CA 95380

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 1978 $40/sqft · 50% below area Est $99k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated to seller. Very Nice park in Turlock close to shopping, freeway, and restaurants. 55+ park - Western View Ranch. Has newer HVAC and waterheater, needs a little TLC .

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• Close to freeway
• Close to shopping

Tags

• PARK IN TURLOCK
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO FREEWAY
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1400 N Tully Rd #180, Turlock, CA 95380; Directions: Fulkerth east to Tully, turn south, turn east in park or use GPS; Postal code: 95380, County: Stanislaus, State: CA
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: no (listed land lease amount present separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Cable available; 220 volts in kitchen and in laundry; Water from water district and other source; Sewer: other
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double-wide; Built in 1978; Listed as fixer/original condition
• Construction: Metal skirting; Composition roof; Make: MADISON-LINCOLN
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Porch awning; Outbuilding and shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Built-in electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Double oven; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Synthetic countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over and separate shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Great room living area; Dining bar and dining/living combo with a formal dining area; Porch with covered deck and covered patio (carpeted); Pets allowed with limits on number and size
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.4% vs local median 3.1% in Turlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#353 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, health & safety A-, commute B; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime D-.
• Turlock Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #334 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.35%
• DSCR: 5.47
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,334
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -49.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1400 N Tully Rd #2	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,250 (+0%)	9mo	$74,000	$59	85
1400 N Tully Rd #141	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,154 (-8%)	11mo	$90,000	$78	78
1400 N Tully #118	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	14mo	$79,900	$59	68
1400 N Tully Rd #8	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	24mo	$115,000	$87	64
1400 N Tully Rd #191	0.15mi	2/1.5	1,124 (-10%)	19mo	$68,500	$61	59
1228 Magic Sands	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,098 (-12%)	9mo	$83,000	$76	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 99.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $63,210
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.87×
• Total profit: $138,161
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95380

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $1,171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1700 N Tully Rd Turlock, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,795	$2.01	13d	1	0.40mi
2541 Carnival Dr Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$2,295	$1.75	44d	1	0.79mi
1101 Park St Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	13d	1	0.82mi
90 Pedras Rd Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$1,650	$1.90	14d	1	1.26mi
3293 Dewar Ln Turlock, CA	3.0	2.5	1456	$2,750	$1.89	14d	1	1.27mi
475 Georgetown Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,350	$1.95	21d	1	1.30mi
1055 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1283	$2,000	$1.56	44d	1	1.31mi
920 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,550	$2.05	14d	1	1.33mi
731 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	14d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   pricestatus $50,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $40,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $40,000 Active 15 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $14,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,382
• After-tax cash flow: $10,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turlock Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600158
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,249
• Composite: 26.58/100
• National rank: #7184
• State rank: #334 of 517 in CA

Livability — Turlock

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #11971

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Turlock, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 83,043
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,960
• Household income: $74,534
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1545.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 14% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -614.27%
• Current HPI: 307.7264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B