17532 Smokey Point Blvd #29 · Arlington, WA 98223

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1976 $75/sqft · 22% below area Est $89k · 22% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A two-bedroom, one-bathroom mobile home located in Arlington, WA. This is a great location in the city of Arlington with local access to excellent small-town restaurants, hiking, fishing and recreation but quick freeway access to city amenities like Seattle Premium Outlets Mall. We are searching for a friendly and responsible neighbor to join our quiet community with stellar credit and references. Application required; all occupants must qualify. Pet restrictions apply (two small pets permitted). Lot rent is $985/month + Utilities. Tennant is responsible for all utilities. Home is offered for sale “AS-IS”. Feel free to contact our office as well with any questions you may have.

Key facts

• Built 1976
• Listed 120 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $69,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$88,977) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.8% vs local median 2.5% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#96 in WA, #1,873 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Lakewood School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #151 of 291 in WA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.31%
• DSCR: 4.57
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,977
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -22.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17432 Smokey Point Blvd #45	0.00mi	2/2.0	950 (+3%)	18mo	$124,500	$131	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $75,062
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.73×
• Total profit: $187,948
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98223

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $186/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $1,293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $514

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,332	-5% $1,313	+0% $1,293	+5% $1,274	+10% $1,254
Rent	-10% $1,123	-5% $1,208	+0% $1,293	+5% $1,378	+10% $1,463
Rate	-1.0pp $1,328	-0.5pp $1,311	base $1,293	+0.5pp $1,275	+1.0pp $1,257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17313 Smokey Point Blvd Arlington, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,738	$2.17	0d	2	0.24mi
17505 38th Dr NE Arlington, WA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,800	$2.67	11d	1	0.33mi
17309 40th Ave NE Arlington, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	660	$2,063	$3.12	0d	10	0.45mi
18111 25th Ave NE Marysville, WA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1284	$2,225	$1.73	0d	13	0.48mi
18321 31st Ave NE Arlington, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	572	$1,900	$3.32	0d	2	0.48mi
18506 Smokey Point Blvd Arlington, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,036	$2.31	0d	15	0.54mi
17500 25th Ave NE Marysville, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,335	$2.42	0d	39	0.62mi
2203 172nd St NE Marysville, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	631	$1,699	$2.69	0d	6	0.77mi
2100 172nd St NE Marysville, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	916	$2,537	$2.77	0d	8	0.84mi
4906 Longhouse Trail Ln NE Arlington, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	687	$2,350	$3.42	0d	9	1.16mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $69,000
17. 2026-02-20
    listed $79,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $186 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$490/yr (+$41/mo · 264.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$186
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $15,277
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,666
• After-tax cash flow: $11,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood School District
• NCES district ID: 5304260
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,106
• Composite: 44.45/100
• National rank: #6089
• State rank: #151 of 291 in WA

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1873

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, WA
• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• City population: 46,497
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 46,497
• Household income: $99,681
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1068.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.84%
• Current HPI: 314.8582
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $69,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $79,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $186 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.