18508 W Acapulco Ln · Surprise, AZ 85388

$555,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,626 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2005 0.29 ac lot Est $671k · 17% under $70/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This gorgeous house has it ALL!!! Sparkling pool, large Ramada, beautiful hardscaping, artificial grass, playset for kids, storage shed, space for a garden, and a paradise for you to entertain in. When you walk into the house you will be greeted with a cozy den, followed by a closed in dining room converted into an office. The living room is located on the backside of the house combined with the kitchen and dining room for a massive entertaining space. Downstairs you will also find a bedroom with a full bathroom perfect for those long term guests or multi-family living. Upstairs you will find a open loft, master suite and 3 additional bedrooms. This house has been updated and is stylish.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $555k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-697 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $432k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Hills Elementary (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #367 of 1,109 statewide, top 33%, 969 students, 42% FRL); Shadow Ridge High School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #88 of 381 statewide, top 24%, 2,323 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($547k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $341,312 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.38%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $670,810
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18379 W Marshall Ln	0.47mi	5/3.5	3,626 (0%)	3mo	$673,500	$186	73
15747 N 182nd Ln	0.42mi	5/3.5	3,297 (-9%)	8mo	$610,000	$185	57
18457 W Ivy Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,089 (-15%)	8mo	$535,000	$173	50
18033 W Ivy Ln	0.61mi	6/4.0 (+1)	3,297 (-9%)	2mo	$525,000	$159	49
18483 W Paradise Ln	0.56mi	6/4.5 (+1)	3,928 (+8%)	13mo	$739,000	$188	42
15551 N 179th Dr	0.75mi	5/3.0	3,300 (-9%)	17mo	$594,000	$180	32
17961 W Ivy Ln	0.71mi	6/3.5 (+1)	3,297 (-9%)	21mo	$646,000	$196	28
14039 N 185th Ave	0.70mi	4/3.5 (-1)	4,024 (+11%)	19mo	$815,000	$203	26
18015 W Mauna Loa Ln	0.64mi	4/4.0 (-1)	4,134 (+14%)	23mo	$640,000	$155	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-63,397
• Equity at exit: $169,089

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-70,584
• Equity at exit: $209,698

Cash invested: $155,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,413 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,910
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,181/yr
• Insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$717
• Net cashflow: $-697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,295

Max offer price $431,859

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-383	-5% $-540	+0% $-697	+5% $-854	+10% $-1,011
Rent	-10% $-967	-5% $-832	+0% $-697	+5% $-562	+10% $-427
Rate	-1.0pp $-418	-0.5pp $-556	base $-697	+0.5pp $-841	+1.0pp $-987

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $138,750
• Closing costs: $16,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15225 N 185th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.5	2941	$3,800	$1.29	0d	1	0.02mi
17932 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2635	$2,195	$0.83	45d	1	0.70mi
16124 N 180th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2958	$2,795	$0.94	6d	1	0.73mi
18096 W Paradise Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,315	$1.12	45d	1	0.78mi
17753 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2453	$2,245	$0.92	25d	1	0.92mi
18293 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	6.0	3.0	2543	$3,700	$1.45	0d	1	0.99mi
17856 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3336	$3,200	$0.96	25d	1	0.99mi
17762 W Watson Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	3318	$3,530	$1.06	25d	1	1.11mi
17110 N 184th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,425	$0.91	0d	1	1.16mi
17110 N 184th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,790	$1.05	45d	1	1.16mi
17273 W Carmen Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	3166	$2,800	$0.88	12d	1	1.43mi
17593 N 185th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,695	$1.01	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $555,000 Active
3. 2022-02-15
   soldstatus $640,000
4. 2022-02-14
   soldstatus $687,000 Closed 706-char remark

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   This gorgeous house has it ALL!!! Sparkling pool, large Ramada, beautiful hardscaping, artificial grass, playset for kids, storage shed, space for a garden, and a paradise for you to entertain in. When you walk into the house you will be greeted with a cozy den, followed by a closed in dining room converted into an office. The living room is located on the backside of the house combined with the kitchen and dining room for a massive entertaining space. Downstairs you will also find a bedroom with a full bathroom perfect for those long term guests or multi-family living. Upstairs you will find a open loft, master suite and 3 additional bedrooms. This house has been updated and is stylish.

5. 2021-12-29
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 706-char remark

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   This gorgeous house has it ALL!!! Sparkling pool, large Ramada, beautiful hardscaping, artificial grass, playset for kids, storage shed, space for a garden, and a paradise for you to entertain in. When you walk into the house you will be greeted with a cozy den, followed by a closed in dining room converted into an office. The living room is located on the backside of the house combined with the kitchen and dining room for a massive entertaining space. Downstairs you will also find a bedroom with a full bathroom perfect for those long term guests or multi-family living. Upstairs you will find a open loft, master suite and 3 additional bedrooms. This house has been updated and is stylish.

6. 2021-12-18
   status Active 706-char remark

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   This gorgeous house has it ALL!!! Sparkling pool, large Ramada, beautiful hardscaping, artificial grass, playset for kids, storage shed, space for a garden, and a paradise for you to entertain in. When you walk into the house you will be greeted with a cozy den, followed by a closed in dining room converted into an office. The living room is located on the backside of the house combined with the kitchen and dining room for a massive entertaining space. Downstairs you will also find a bedroom with a full bathroom perfect for those long term guests or multi-family living. Upstairs you will find a open loft, master suite and 3 additional bedrooms. This house has been updated and is stylish.

7. 2021-11-17
   historical 706-char remark

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   This gorgeous house has it ALL!!! Sparkling pool, large Ramada, beautiful hardscaping, artificial grass, playset for kids, storage shed, space for a garden, and a paradise for you to entertain in. When you walk into the house you will be greeted with a cozy den, followed by a closed in dining room converted into an office. The living room is located on the backside of the house combined with the kitchen and dining room for a massive entertaining space. Downstairs you will also find a bedroom with a full bathroom perfect for those long term guests or multi-family living. Upstairs you will find a open loft, master suite and 3 additional bedrooms. This house has been updated and is stylish.

8. 2021-11-05
   listed $685,000 Active 706-char remark

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   This gorgeous house has it ALL!!! Sparkling pool, large Ramada, beautiful hardscaping, artificial grass, playset for kids, storage shed, space for a garden, and a paradise for you to entertain in. When you walk into the house you will be greeted with a cozy den, followed by a closed in dining room converted into an office. The living room is located on the backside of the house combined with the kitchen and dining room for a massive entertaining space. Downstairs you will also find a bedroom with a full bathroom perfect for those long term guests or multi-family living. Upstairs you will find a open loft, master suite and 3 additional bedrooms. This house has been updated and is stylish.

9. 2020-08-29
   historical
10. 2020-08-24
    listed $450,000 Active
11. 2019-06-27
    soldstatus $395,000 Closed
12. 2019-06-27
    listed $415,000 Active
13. 2019-06-27
    soldstatus $395,000
14. 2015-06-11
    soldstatus $290,000 Closed
15. 2015-06-10
    soldstatus $290,000
16. 2015-05-05
    status Pending
17. 2015-04-10
    price $297,500
18. 2015-03-18
    listed $310,000 Active
19. 2009-11-12
    soldstatus $215,000
20. 2009-11-12
    soldstatus $215,000
21. 2009-09-09
    historical
22. 2009-07-13
    listed $249,950
23. 2003-12-15
    soldstatus $5,504,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,181 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,663 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,482/yr (+$124/mo · 68.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,089
• − Property taxes: −$2,181
• − Insurance: −$2,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,277
• − Management: −$3,277
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$16,145
• Taxable loss: −$18,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,470
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-89.9% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $555,000 ARMLS
• 2022-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $640,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-14 Sold (MLS) $687,000 ARMLS
• 2021-12-29 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-12-18 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2021-11-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-11-05 Listed $685,000 ARMLS
• 2020-08-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2020-08-24 Listed $450,000 ARMLS
• 2019-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-27 Listed $415,000 ARMLS
• 2019-06-27 Sold (MLS) $395,000 ARMLS
• 2015-06-11 Sold (MLS) $290,000 ARMLS
• 2015-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-05 Pending — ARMLS
• 2015-04-10 Price Changed $297,500 ARMLS
• 2015-03-18 Listed $310,000 ARMLS
• 2009-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-12 Sold (MLS) $215,000 ARMLS
• 2009-09-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-07-13 Listed $249,950 ARMLS
• 2003-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $5,504,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,181 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.