6269 Fireside Ct · Saxman, AK 99901

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1983 0.60 ac lot $212/sqft · 41% below area Est $546k · 41% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the charming Roosevelt neighborhood, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a sanctuary that feels worlds away from the everyday hustle and bustle. Spread across 1,509 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this property sits on an impressively expansive 26,273-square-foot lot that promises lots of possibilities.

Key facts

• Private sanctuary
• Expansive lot
• 0.6 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE SANCTUARY
• EXPANSIVE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#157 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ketchikan Gateway Borough School District (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #7 of 21 in AK (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Ketchikan Gateway Borough in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ketchikan Gateway County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,041 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $545,830
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -41.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-67,605
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-79,419
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99901

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,262/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,532

Max offer price $276,580

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $320,000 Pending 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $320,000 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $320,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $320,000 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-05-05
   price $320,000 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   Nestled in the charming Roosevelt neighborhood, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a private sanctuary that feels worlds away from the everyday hustle. Spread across 1,509 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, the property sits on an impressively expansive26,273-square-foot lot that promises endless possibilities.

6. 2026-05-05
   price $320,000 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   Nestled in the charming Roosevelt neighborhood, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a private sanctuary that feels worlds away from the everyday hustle. Spread across 1,509 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, the property sits on an impressively expansive26,273-square-foot lot that promises endless possibilities.

7. 2026-02-25
   price $355,000 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Nestled in the charming Roosevelt neighborhood, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a sanctuary that feels worlds away from the everyday hustle and bustle. Spread across 1,509 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this property sits on an impressively expansive 26,273-square-foot lot that promises lots of possibilities.

8. 2026-02-25
   price $355,000 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (346 chars)

   Nestled in the charming Roosevelt neighborhood, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a sanctuary that feels worlds away from the everyday hustle and bustle. Spread across 1,509 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this property sits on an impressively expansive 26,273-square-foot lot that promises lots of possibilities.

9. 2025-12-15
   listed $375,000 Active 346-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   Nestled in the charming Roosevelt neighborhood, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a private sanctuary that feels worlds away from the everyday hustle. Spread across 1,509 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, the property sits on an impressively expansive26,273-square-foot lot that promises endless possibilities.

10. 2025-12-15
    listed $375,000 Active 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Nestled in the charming Roosevelt neighborhood, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a private sanctuary that feels worlds away from the everyday hustle. Spread across 1,509 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, the property sits on an impressively expansive26,273-square-foot lot that promises endless possibilities.

11. 2019-07-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,262 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,035 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$773/yr (+$64/mo · 34.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,262
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,132
• − Management: −$2,132
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$8,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,091
• After-tax cash flow: $-858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ketchikan Gateway Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200150
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,859
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4550
• State rank: #7 of 21 in AK

Livability — Saxman

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #23765

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,875

Population outlook (Ketchikan Gateway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,287 people
• By 2030: 14,487 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 14,750 · +3.2%
• By 2050: 14,908 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 15,319 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 15,204 · +6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Native American 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 7% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ketchikan Gateway

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 190.039
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-14.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $320,000 SEABR
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $320,000 AKMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $355,000 AKMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $355,000 SEABR
• 2025-12-15 Listed $375,000 SEABR
• 2025-12-15 Listed $375,000 AKMLS
• 2019-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,262 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.