Venture Plan · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$334,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily · 953 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Venture features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, generous living space and stylish finishes. The large gathering room opens to the covered patio providing abundant natural light and openness. This plan also features an elegant owner's suite with a large walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 953 days

🏗️ New construction. The $334,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $438,863.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 939 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,167 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.70%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $438,863
• List price: $334,990
• Delta: -23.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18860 N 262nd Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,575 (+13%)	4mo	$455,000	$289	67
26123 W Oraibi Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,398 (+0%)	8mo	$300,000	$215	66
26651 W Kimberly Way	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+13%)	3mo	$446,990	$284	60
19794 N 264th Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,494 (+7%)	1mo	$340,000	$228	59
26126 W Piute Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,261 (-9%)	2mo	$300,000	$238	58
18885 N 266th Ave	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+13%)	8mo	$411,900	$262	57
26797 W Mcrae Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,575 (+13%)	0mo	$400,000	$254	55
26080 W Sequoia Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,345 (-3%)	9mo	$325,000	$242	51
26820 W Kerry Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+13%)	0mo	$452,700	$288	50
19667 N 260th Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,494 (+7%)	4mo	$344,000	$230	48
25920 W Westcott Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,569 (+13%)	11mo	$439,000	$280	41
26938 W Rosemonte Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+13%)	11mo	$393,810	$250	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-139,871
• Equity at exit: $65,436

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-207,335
• Equity at exit: $37,945

Cash invested: $122,882 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 939
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,452 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,301
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$549 /mo · $6,583/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-1,096

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,839

Max offer price $280,261

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,716
• Closing costs: $13,166
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18675 N 268th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1865	$1,799	$0.96	44d	1	0.49mi
26087 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$2,300	$1.42	44d	1	0.69mi
26182 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,695	$1.04	3d	1	0.71mi
26781 W Oraibi Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,000	$1.28	18d	1	0.71mi
26881 W Utopia Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1705	$3,500	$2.05	1d	1	0.75mi
26731 W Pontiac Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1373	$1,475	$1.07	3d	1	1.00mi
20669 N 266th Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	24d	1	1.20mi
26766 W Mohawk Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,500	$1.82	4d	1	1.21mi
26477 W Ross Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,500	$1.09	44d	1	1.24mi
20311 N 271st Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,000	$1.86	1d	1	1.31mi
27389 W Wahalla Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.5	1717	$3,500	$2.04	1d	1	1.38mi
27013 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	44d	1	1.44mi
26237 W Matthew Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1646	$3,500	$2.13	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,990 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,990 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,990 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,990 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,990 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,990 Active 947 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,990 Active 944 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $334,990 Active 943 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $334,990 Active 942 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $334,990 Active 939 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,990 Active 938 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,990 Active 937 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,990 Active 936 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,990 Active 935 DOM
15. 2026-01-02
    price $334,990 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    The Venture features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, generous living space and stylish finishes. The large gathering room opens to the covered patio providing abundant natural light and openness. This plan also features an elegant owner's suite with a large walk-in closet.

16. 2025-07-04
    price $332,990 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    The Venture features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, generous living space and stylish finishes. The large gathering room opens to the covered patio providing abundant natural light and openness. This plan also features an elegant owner's suite with a large walk-in closet.

17. 2023-11-08
    listed $329,990 Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    The Venture features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, generous living space and stylish finishes. The large gathering room opens to the covered patio providing abundant natural light and openness. This plan also features an elegant owner's suite with a large walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,583
• − Property taxes: −$6,583
• − Insurance: −$2,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,354
• − Management: −$2,354
• − Depreciation: −$12,767
• Taxable loss: −$21,415
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,139
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $334,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $332,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $329,990 Zillow