9161 Santa Fe Ave E #20 · Hesperia, CA 92345

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1986 $72/sqft · at area comps Est $110k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the well-maintained Hesperia community of Rancho Santa Fe Mobile Home Estates this unit stands out as the most competitively priced home in the entire park--making it a strong opportunity for buyers looking for value. The layout is simple and functional with an open living area, natural light, and a kitchen that flows right into the main space. Bedrooms are comfortably sized, and the home is clean, cleared out, and move-in ready with room to make it your own over time. The location checks the boxes too; close to shopping, dining, and main roads, so you're not driving 20 minutes just to grab something quick. With pricing like this in today's market, options like this won't last! So If you've been waiting for something affordable in Hesperia this is one to take a look at sooner rather than later.

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 3.7% in Hesperia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,009 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime D-.
• Hesperia Unified (suburban): math 20% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #353 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 463 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.68%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,000
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9161 Santa Fe Ave E #27	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+7%)	3mo	$110,000	$67	85
9161 Santa Fe Ave E #14	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+2%)	11mo	$115,000	$73	82
9161 Santa Fe E #63	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	3mo	$70,000	$52	77
9161 Santa Fe Ave E #66	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	22mo	$70,000	$52	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $62,983
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $157,783
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92345

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $336/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $1,275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $824

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9175 3rd Ave Hesperia, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1190	$2,640	$2.22	1d	4	0.23mi
16507 Juniper St Hesperia, CA	3.0	2.0	1297	$2,400	$1.85	43d	1	0.45mi
16854 Muscatel St Hesperia, CA	3.0	2.5	1281	$2,395	$1.87	43d	1	0.60mi
16476 Smoke Tree St Unit a Hesperia, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$2,045	$1.84	43d	1	0.63mi
8550 C Ave Hesperia, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	43d	1	0.71mi
8922 I Ave Unit 3 Hesperia, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,695	$1.47	43d	1	0.93mi
16245 Pine St Hesperia, CA	2.0	1.0	1054	$2,400	$2.28	43d	1	0.94mi
17530 Aspen St Hesperia, CA	3.0	2.0	1814	$2,510	$1.38	24d	1	1.22mi
16001 Live Oak St Unit Main House Hesperia, CA	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,295	$1.43	24d	1	1.23mi
17343 Buckthorn Ave Hesperia, CA	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,435	$1.53	3d	1	1.25mi
17593 Sultana St Hesperia, CA	2.0	2.0	1268	$2,000	$1.58	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $110,000 Active 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    Located in the well-maintained Hesperia community of Rancho Santa Fe Mobile Home Estates this unit stands out as the most competitively priced home in the entire park--making it a strong opportunity for buyers looking for value. The layout is simple and functional with an open living area, natural light, and a kitchen that flows right into the main space. Bedrooms are comfortably sized, and the home is clean, cleared out, and move-in ready with room to make it your own over time. The location checks the boxes too; close to shopping, dining, and main roads, so you're not driving 20 minutes just to grab something quick. With pricing like this in today's market, options like this won't last! So If you've been waiting for something affordable in Hesperia this is one to take a look at sooner rather than later.

16. 2026-04-19
    historical $110,000 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    Located in the well-maintained Hesperia community of Rancho Santa Fe Mobile Home Estates this unit stands out as the most competitively priced home in the entire park--making it a strong opportunity for buyers looking for value. The layout is simple and functional with an open living area, natural light, and a kitchen that flows right into the main space. Bedrooms are comfortably sized, and the home is clean, cleared out, and move-in ready with room to make it your own over time. The location checks the boxes too; close to shopping, dining, and main roads, so you're not driving 20 minutes just to grab something quick. With pricing like this in today's market, options like this won't last! So If you've been waiting for something affordable in Hesperia this is one to take a look at sooner rather than later.

17. 2024-04-03
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed Sale 1205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1205 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful and well cared for home in a serene senior community in the city of Hesperia! This home is centrally located to all amenities that this city has to offer! Did I mention that it comes with TONS of upgrades! Recently painted inside and out, newer appliances and a new AC unit was installed in 2020. This expansive, over 1,500 square foot home offers three bedrooms with the primary suite situated on the opposite side of the remaining two rooms for additional privacy. The large master suite offers a walk-in closet, private bath with an updated walk-in shower with a glass door and a private patio exit! Let me tell you about this kitchen in pristine condition with freshly painted cabinetry complete with a double oven, new range and dishwasher! The kitchen offers a ton of storage including an impressive custom pantry made of solid wood. There are two dining areas off the kitchen and the living room offers vaulted ceilings that create a wide open space to enjoy and entertain. The indoor laundry is large and offers complete convenience with its own designated room in the home. The community offers a clubhouse, sparkling pool and jacuzzi. I invite you to come check it out!

18. 2024-03-26
    status Pending Sale 1205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1205 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful and well cared for home in a serene senior community in the city of Hesperia! This home is centrally located to all amenities that this city has to offer! Did I mention that it comes with TONS of upgrades! Recently painted inside and out, newer appliances and a new AC unit was installed in 2020. This expansive, over 1,500 square foot home offers three bedrooms with the primary suite situated on the opposite side of the remaining two rooms for additional privacy. The large master suite offers a walk-in closet, private bath with an updated walk-in shower with a glass door and a private patio exit! Let me tell you about this kitchen in pristine condition with freshly painted cabinetry complete with a double oven, new range and dishwasher! The kitchen offers a ton of storage including an impressive custom pantry made of solid wood. There are two dining areas off the kitchen and the living room offers vaulted ceilings that create a wide open space to enjoy and entertain. The indoor laundry is large and offers complete convenience with its own designated room in the home. The community offers a clubhouse, sparkling pool and jacuzzi. I invite you to come check it out!

19. 2024-03-04
    historical Active Under Contract 1205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1205 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful and well cared for home in a serene senior community in the city of Hesperia! This home is centrally located to all amenities that this city has to offer! Did I mention that it comes with TONS of upgrades! Recently painted inside and out, newer appliances and a new AC unit was installed in 2020. This expansive, over 1,500 square foot home offers three bedrooms with the primary suite situated on the opposite side of the remaining two rooms for additional privacy. The large master suite offers a walk-in closet, private bath with an updated walk-in shower with a glass door and a private patio exit! Let me tell you about this kitchen in pristine condition with freshly painted cabinetry complete with a double oven, new range and dishwasher! The kitchen offers a ton of storage including an impressive custom pantry made of solid wood. There are two dining areas off the kitchen and the living room offers vaulted ceilings that create a wide open space to enjoy and entertain. The indoor laundry is large and offers complete convenience with its own designated room in the home. The community offers a clubhouse, sparkling pool and jacuzzi. I invite you to come check it out!

20. 2024-02-03
    listed $89,999 Active 1205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1205 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful and well cared for home in a serene senior community in the city of Hesperia! This home is centrally located to all amenities that this city has to offer! Did I mention that it comes with TONS of upgrades! Recently painted inside and out, newer appliances and a new AC unit was installed in 2020. This expansive, over 1,500 square foot home offers three bedrooms with the primary suite situated on the opposite side of the remaining two rooms for additional privacy. The large master suite offers a walk-in closet, private bath with an updated walk-in shower with a glass door and a private patio exit! Let me tell you about this kitchen in pristine condition with freshly painted cabinetry complete with a double oven, new range and dishwasher! The kitchen offers a ton of storage including an impressive custom pantry made of solid wood. There are two dining areas off the kitchen and the living room offers vaulted ceilings that create a wide open space to enjoy and entertain. The indoor laundry is large and offers complete convenience with its own designated room in the home. The community offers a clubhouse, sparkling pool and jacuzzi. I invite you to come check it out!

21. 2018-10-15
    soldstatus $63,900
22. 2018-09-11
    listed $63,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $336 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$500/yr (+$42/mo · 148.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$336
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,340
• − Management: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $14,323
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,438
• After-tax cash flow: $11,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hesperia Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600014
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,376
• Composite: 25.66/100
• National rank: #7397
• State rank: #353 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hesperia

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1009
• US rank: #24896

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hesperia, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 110,055
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 88,706
• Household income: $69,485
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2768.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -375.87%
• Current HPI: 433.2103
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+72.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $110,000 GPSMLS
• 2026-04-19 Coming Soon $110,000 GPSMLS
• 2024-04-03 Sold (MLS) $90,000 CRMLS
• 2024-03-26 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-03-04 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2024-02-03 Listed $89,999 CRMLS
• 2018-10-15 Sold (MLS) $63,900 CRMLS
• 2018-09-11 Listed $63,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $336 · +69.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.