2524 Covington Loop · Graham, NC 27523

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,898 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2007 10,018 sqft lot Est $364k · 11% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this delightful ranch-style house! As you step inside, you'll immediately feel at ease in the warm & welcoming atmosphere. Boasting almost 2,000 square feet of living space, this home has plenty of room for you and your loved ones. The 1st floor has 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 baths provide ample space for relaxing & unwinding after a long day. Plus with the added bonus of a 4th bedroom that would make a perfect office or playroom, there's plenty of room for everyone. Freshly painted and brand new carpeting, give a clean & cozy feel throughout. You'll appreciate the privacy of the main living areas being separated from the bedrooms, making it the perfect layout for entertaining guests. Step outside into your own fenced yard. This peaceful and friendly community also includes a playground for the kids to play and adults to relax. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this charming house your very own. Come see it today and start creating memories that will last a lifetime! INCLUDES A 1 YEAR HOME WARRANTY

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#144 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southern Alamance Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #238 of 475 statewide, top 51%, 685 students, 49% FRL); Southern Alamance High (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B-, #199 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,360 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alamance-Burlington Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 21% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,612 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $364,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2412 Chartwell Ln	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,946 (+2%)	12mo	$335,000	$172	73
2392 Willowview Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,825 (-4%)	5mo	$405,000	$222	65
2708 Pepperstone Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,055 (+8%)	9mo	$342,000	$166	63
2419 Pepperstone Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,002 (+6%)	9mo	$335,000	$167	63
2506 Pepperstone Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,048 (+8%)	13mo	$320,000	$156	60
2520 Trackers Ct	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,029 (+7%)	1mo	$390,000	$192	56
2265 Lacy Holt Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,151 (+13%)	1mo	$455,000	$212	52
2464 Pepperstone Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	2,180 (+15%)	14mo	$300,000	$138	52
2382 Council Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,111 (+11%)	10mo	$385,000	$182	46
2622 Lacy Holt Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-6%)	19mo	$383,630	$215	39
3001 Bayou St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-14%)	12mo	$345,084	$210	33
2385 Quail Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,066 (+9%)	23mo	$492,500	$238	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-71,420
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-103,942
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27523

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,286 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,544/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,523

Max offer price $291,896

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2023-06-12
   soldstatus $336,000 Closed 1054-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

   Welcome home to this delightful ranch-style house! As you step inside, you'll immediately feel at ease in the warm & welcoming atmosphere. Boasting almost 2,000 square feet of living space, this home has plenty of room for you and your loved ones. The 1st floor has 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 baths provide ample space for relaxing & unwinding after a long day. Plus with the added bonus of a 4th bedroom that would make a perfect office or playroom, there's plenty of room for everyone. Freshly painted and brand new carpeting, give a clean & cozy feel throughout. You'll appreciate the privacy of the main living areas being separated from the bedrooms, making it the perfect layout for entertaining guests. Step outside into your own fenced yard. This peaceful and friendly community also includes a playground for the kids to play and adults to relax. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this charming house your very own. Come see it today and start creating memories that will last a lifetime! INCLUDES A 1 YEAR HOME WARRANTY

2. 2023-06-12
   soldstatus $336,000

   Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

   Welcome home to this delightful ranch-style house! As you step inside, you'll immediately feel at ease in the warm & welcoming atmosphere. Boasting almost 2,000 square feet of living space, this home has plenty of room for you and your loved ones. The 1st floor has 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 baths provide ample space for relaxing & unwinding after a long day. Plus with the added bonus of a 4th bedroom that would make a perfect office or playroom, there's plenty of room for everyone. Freshly painted and brand new carpeting, give a clean & cozy feel throughout. You'll appreciate the privacy of the main living areas being separated from the bedrooms, making it the perfect layout for entertaining guests. Step outside into your own fenced yard. This peaceful and friendly community also includes a playground for the kids to play and adults to relax. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this charming house your very own. Come see it today and start creating memories that will last a lifetime! INCLUDES A 1 YEAR HOME WARRANTY

3. 2023-05-18
   status Pending
4. 2023-05-12
   historical Contingent 1054-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

   Welcome home to this delightful ranch-style house! As you step inside, you'll immediately feel at ease in the warm & welcoming atmosphere. Boasting almost 2,000 square feet of living space, this home has plenty of room for you and your loved ones. The 1st floor has 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 baths provide ample space for relaxing & unwinding after a long day. Plus with the added bonus of a 4th bedroom that would make a perfect office or playroom, there's plenty of room for everyone. Freshly painted and brand new carpeting, give a clean & cozy feel throughout. You'll appreciate the privacy of the main living areas being separated from the bedrooms, making it the perfect layout for entertaining guests. Step outside into your own fenced yard. This peaceful and friendly community also includes a playground for the kids to play and adults to relax. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this charming house your very own. Come see it today and start creating memories that will last a lifetime! INCLUDES A 1 YEAR HOME WARRANTY

5. 2023-05-10
   listed $325,000 Active
6. 2023-05-05
   listed $325,000 Active 1054-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

   Welcome home to this delightful ranch-style house! As you step inside, you'll immediately feel at ease in the warm & welcoming atmosphere. Boasting almost 2,000 square feet of living space, this home has plenty of room for you and your loved ones. The 1st floor has 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 baths provide ample space for relaxing & unwinding after a long day. Plus with the added bonus of a 4th bedroom that would make a perfect office or playroom, there's plenty of room for everyone. Freshly painted and brand new carpeting, give a clean & cozy feel throughout. You'll appreciate the privacy of the main living areas being separated from the bedrooms, making it the perfect layout for entertaining guests. Step outside into your own fenced yard. This peaceful and friendly community also includes a playground for the kids to play and adults to relax. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this charming house your very own. Come see it today and start creating memories that will last a lifetime! INCLUDES A 1 YEAR HOME WARRANTY

7. 2007-05-24
   soldstatus $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,544 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,665 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,121/yr (+$93/mo · 72.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$1,544
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,195
• − Management: −$2,195
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$8,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,940
• After-tax cash flow: $-308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Graham

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #8181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graham, NC
• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 33,114
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 20,269
• Household income: $135,625
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 430.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Asian 26% Black 10% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.28%
• Current HPI: 293.6512
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.78%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+81.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2023-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $336,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-12 Sold (MLS) $336,000 TMLS
• 2023-05-18 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2023-05-12 Contingent — TMLS
• 2023-05-10 Listed $325,000 Triad MLS
• 2023-05-05 Listed $325,000 TMLS
• 2007-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,544 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.