409 W Lawrence St · Tribune, KS 67879

$89,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 940 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1920 4,813 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Key facts

• Across from school
• Bonus room
• Carport

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• CARPORT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• ACROSS FROM SCHOOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with alley access; 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Permanent foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Asphalt roof; Lot approximately 4,813 sq ft

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning (electric); Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Dryer; Washer; Electric water heater; Carpet flooring; Ceramic tile flooring; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($760/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#171 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Greeley County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #241 of 280 in KS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($619 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Greeley County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $14,828
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $47,166
• Equity at exit: $62,019

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67879

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $863 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $783

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,500 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,500 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,500 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,500 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,500 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,500 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,500 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-02-09
    listed $89,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$829
• − Management: −$829
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable loss: −$707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$170
• After-tax cash flow: $930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greeley County Schools
• NCES district ID: 2006690
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,215
• Composite: 23.14/100
• National rank: #13342
• State rank: #241 of 280 in KS

Livability — Tribune

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #8059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tribune, KS
• Population (ZIP): 1,293

Population outlook (Greeley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,428 people
• By 2030: 1,499 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 1,660 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 1,863 · +30.5%
• By 2075: 2,609 · +82.7%
• By 2100: 3,333 · +133.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 17% Native American 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greeley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.3) · D 12.7% · R 86.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -59.1pp · 2024: -73.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.3 2020: R+73.1 2016: R+68.9 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+59.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $89,500 GardenMLS