6350 Portal Way #48 · Ferndale, WA 98248

$259,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 241 Days on market

Built 2007 1,188 sqft lot $218/sqft · 30% above area Est $200k · 30% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Portal Creek 55+ Park!! Step into this well-maintained and beautifully landscaped home. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an open concept living area. Vaulted ceilings throughout and skylights help create a light and open living space. Large kitchen with lots of cabinet storage and counter space. All appliances included. Great dining space adjacent to kitchen. Cozy living room with gas fireplace and warm wood floors. Primary bathroom features low barrier entry shower. Finished 2 car garage w/ ramp to house. Back yard patio and gravel area with lots of potential. Enjoy great community and spacious clubhouse at the center of the Portal Park neighborhood.

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Large kitchen
• Finished garage

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHTS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• FINISHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.5% in Ferndale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#79 in WA, #1,471 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Ferndale School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #138 of 291 in WA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $217,933 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.10%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: 29.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6350 Portal Way #26	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (0%)	21mo	$280,000	$236	74
6350 Portal Way #6	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,319 (+11%)	22mo	$315,000	$239	58
6541 Timmerman Ln	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-9%)	16mo	$351,750	$326	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-29,992
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $924
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98248

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,546/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,019

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $200	+0% $127	+5% $53	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $41	+0% $127	+5% $213	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $193	base $127	+0.5pp $60	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2119 Aldergrove Rd Unit E Ferndale, WA	2.0	1.0	864	$2,000	$2.31	15d	1	0.84mi
2274 Thornton St Ferndale, WA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	15d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,000 Active 241 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,000 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,000 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 220 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,000 Active 219 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $259,000
18. 2026-04-23
    status Active
19. 2026-02-06
    price $269,000
20. 2025-10-22
    listed $279,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,546 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,538 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$992/yr (+$83/mo · 64.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$1,546
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$2,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$700
• After-tax cash flow: $2,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferndale School District
• NCES district ID: 5302850
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,413
• Composite: 46.06/100
• National rank: #5494
• State rank: #138 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ferndale

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferndale, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• City population: 28,498
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 28,498
• Household income: $91,060
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 582.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Portuguese 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -427.43%
• Current HPI: 407.6077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.79%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $259,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $269,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listed $279,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,546 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.