27 Marwood Dr · Lake Monticello, VA 22963

$350,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2002 0.33 ac lot $143/sqft · 12% below area Est $397k · 12% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated colonial Home at Lake Monticello! Main level features large family room, kitchen with eat in area and pantry, large dining room, and a powder room. Upstairs has a master bedroom with master bathroom, 2 closets and vaulted ceilings, 2 large bedrooms, a full bath and laundry. The finished basement has one large, bright family room plus two finished rooms that would be great as a home office, playroom, or craft room. There is rough-in info for a future bathroom in the basement and storage. Large rear deck over looks wooded area behind. New roof installed 2026. Heat pump is about 5 years old.

Key facts

• Large dining room
• Large family room
• Two finished rooms

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• KITCHEN WITH EAT IN AREA
• LARGE DINING ROOM
• MASTER BATHROOM
• TWO FINISHED ROOMS
• LARGE REAR DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: Association with annual fee; Annual association fee of $1,495; Association amenities include golf course, pool, beach rights, boat ramp, tennis courts, insurance, and trash service

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached home; Two stories; Colonial style
• Construction: Stick built with vinyl siding; Poured foundation; Built in Colonial model
• Exterior features: Architectural roof; Pool access via association; Rolling topography; Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Additional bedroom on second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Finished basement with walk-out access; Gas log fireplace; Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer; Dryer; Carpet and hardwood flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (second level laundry listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carysbrook Elementary (math 57% / reading 64%, grade B-, #529 of 1,108 statewide, top 48%, 472 students, 43% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 23% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $350k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,308 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,477
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -11.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Xebec Rd	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,466 (+0%)	4mo	$400,000	$162	75
28 Possum Ln	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,420 (-2%)	8mo	$740,000	$306	69
399 Jefferson Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,516 (+2%)	9mo	$449,000	$178	67
7 Ashcake Ter	0.52mi	3/3.5	2,284 (-7%)	0mo	$371,000	$162	59
409 Jefferson Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	2,144 (-13%)	6mo	$369,000	$172	57
17 Vine Ridge Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,460 (+0%)	7mo	$650,000	$264	55
640 Jefferson Dr	0.73mi	3/3.0	2,496 (+2%)	9mo	$425,000	$170	54
4 Highland Rd	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,254 (-8%)	1mo	$368,000	$163	53
15 Austin Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,196 (-11%)	1mo	$335,000	$153	52
10 Darby Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,351 (-4%)	8mo	$330,000	$140	45
22 Brougham Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,300 (-6%)	9mo	$400,000	$174	42
661 Jefferson Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,128 (-13%)	7mo	$296,000	$139	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-77,585
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-94,467
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22963

• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,763/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,958

Max offer price $292,148

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Old Mill Ct Palmyra, VA	4.0	2.0	2082	$2,200	$1.06	43d	1	0.42mi
25 Glen Burnie Rd Palmyra, VA	3.0	2.5	2128	$2,850	$1.34	5d	1	0.77mi
15 Tobacco Ter Palmyra, VA	3.0	2.5	2300	$3,300	$1.43	43d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-30
   statusdays on market $350,000 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $360,000 Active 604-char remark
3. 2019-06-13
   soldstatus $230,000
4. 2019-03-16
   listed $234,900
5. 2009-11-19
   soldstatus $209,000
6. 2009-07-27
   listed $205,000
7. 2001-11-01
   listed $137,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,763 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,870 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$107/yr (+$9/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,763
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,441
• − Management: −$2,441
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$10,166
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,440
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Monticello, VA
• County: Fluvanna County · 16,896 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 16,896
• Household income: $104,259
• Rent vs Own: 6.2% rent · 93.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 47.0

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.94%
• Current HPI: 158.3322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+153.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $350,000 CAAR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $360,000 CAAR
• 2019-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-16 Listed $234,900 CAAR
• 2009-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $209,000 Public Records
• 2009-07-27 Listed $205,000 CAAR
• 2001-11-01 Listed $137,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,763 · +20.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.