203 Cabriolet St · Marion, AR 72364

$95,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,078 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1986 8,276 sqft lot Est $156k · 39% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3-2 in Marion, AR - Call to see

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.8% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#147 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion School District (suburban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #185 of 238 in AR (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Marion High School (math 10% / reading 27%, grade F, #251 of 292 statewide, top 86%, 850 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 52% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 69 units permitted in Crittenden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crittenden County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.28%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,310
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
500 Meredith Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+10%)	1mo	$178,000	$150	74
266 Cabriolet St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,149 (+7%)	2mo	$177,000	$154	70
112 Carriage St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+12%)	11mo	$175,000	$145	62
230 Cabriolet St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,238 (+15%)	11mo	$165,000	$133	58
329 Dozier Cir	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,130 (+5%)	17mo	$164,900	$146	56
268 Cabriolet Cv	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,180 (+10%)	15mo	$162,900	$138	54
144 Henry St	0.74mi	3/1.0	975 (-10%)	7mo	$129,900	$133	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $562
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $21,138
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72364

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,804/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 Gannt St Unit 324 GANNT A Marion, AR	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.75mi
310 Gannt St Unit 310 GANNT A Marion, AR	2.0	1.0	700	$700	$1.00	43d	1	0.79mi
308 Gannt St Unit 308 GANNT A Marion, AR	2.0	1.0	700	$700	$1.00	43d	1	0.80mi
213 Randolph St Marion, AR	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,500	$1.10	23d	1	0.87mi
1120 L H Polk St Marion, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$1,405	$1.43	1d	9	1.16mi
501 Par Dr Marion, AR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	762	$1,330	$1.74	1d	31	1.36mi
30 Windsor Rd Marion, AR	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,325	$1.07	2d	1	1.38mi
48 S Bristol Rd Marion, AR	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,100	$1.07	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2024-11-22
   soldstatus $140,000
2. 2024-03-06
   soldstatus $80,000
3. 2024-02-27
   status Under Contract
4. 2024-02-01
   listed $95,000 New Listing
5. 2012-01-27
   soldstatus $67,000
6. 1994-10-05
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,804
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,140
• − Management: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,605
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$385
• After-tax cash flow: $2,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion School District
• NCES district ID: 0509390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,758
• Composite: 20.88/100
• National rank: #8492
• State rank: #185 of 238 in AR

Livability — Marion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #12733

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, AR
• County: Crittenden County · 16,034 people
• City population: 16,034
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 16,034
• Household income: $74,462
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 319.0

Population outlook (Crittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,254 people
• By 2030: 42,953 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -15.5%
• By 2050: 33,670 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,315 · -46.3%
• By 2100: 17,173 · -62.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 35% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crittenden

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 47.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.7pp · 2024: 2.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.3 2020: D+7.2 2016: D+9.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.64%
• Current HPI: 205.4807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+141.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-27 Pending — CARMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listed $95,000 CARMLS
• 2012-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,804 · +320.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.