2909 Tarpey Ave · Texas City, TX 77590

$130,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1967 6,067 sqft lot $88/sqft · 28% below area Est $180k · 28% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,067 sq ft lot
• Built 1967
• Listed 91 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 292 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.67%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,663
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -27.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2705 6th Ave N	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,516 (+3%)	4mo	$265,000	$175	81
2913 Tarpey Ave	0.01mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,334 (-10%)	5mo	$110,000	$82	70
2814 6th Ave N	0.21mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,345 (-9%)	1mo	$220,000	$164	68
2809 Fairfield Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,363 (-8%)	4mo	$225,000	$165	66
2929 8th Ave N	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,307 (-12%)	2mo	$212,000	$162	65
3009 Rust Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,328 (-10%)	4mo	$79,999	$60	61
3110 8th Ave N	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (+7%)	3mo	$209,000	$132	61
2906 Somerset Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,297 (-12%)	3mo	$185,880	$143	59
3014 14th Ave N	0.66mi	4/1.5	1,612 (+9%)	1mo	$110,000	$68	51
2918 15th Ave N	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,538 (+4%)	1mo	$198,500	$129	51
2814 12th Ave N	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,346 (-9%)	1mo	$172,000	$128	50
3134 7th Ave N	0.40mi	4/1.0	1,274 (-14%)	6mo	$169,900	$133	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $10,901
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $62,511
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77590

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,657/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,401

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2714 5th Ave N Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,800	$1.30	44d	1	0.23mi
3106 Danforth Dr Texas City, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	24d	1	0.25mi
2526 3rd 1/2 Ave N Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,550	$1.25	24d	1	0.38mi
2418 14th Ave N Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,775	$1.19	3d	1	0.87mi
1919 13th Ave N Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,499	$1.58	2d	6	1.04mi
3510 Oleander Ave Unit 1545914P Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$3,902	$2.16	17d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-04-09
   price $130,000
4. 2026-03-24
   price $145,000
5. 2026-03-02
   listed $155,000 Active
6. 2003-07-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,657 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,657 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$3,657
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3,562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$855
• After-tax cash flow: $4,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texas City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842510
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,875
• Composite: 24.47/100
• National rank: #7664
• State rank: #655 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,642
• Household income: $65,801
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1821.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 20% Black 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.35%
• Current HPI: 244.5809
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2003-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,657 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.