29 Clayton St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$220,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,294 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1952 5,494 sqft lot Est $193k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owners pride shows with this well maintained Cape Cod home! Incredible mechanics in this house: updated triple pane windows throughout lower level, roof 2012 (under 30 yr warranty), hot water tank 2010, new plumbing 2017, new sewer lines 2016, exterior professionally painted 2017, and so much more! House features 4 bedrooms, a spacious eat-in kitchen with ample storage. Large back yard with covered patio, great for outdoor gatherings. Don’t miss this one!

Key facts

• 5,494 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($188/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,655/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,536 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,806
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
141 Page St	0.12mi	4/1.0	1,479 (+14%)	7mo	$220,000	$149	64
50 Philadelphia St	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,276 (-1%)	1mo	$155,000	$121	56
175 W Hazeltine Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,310 (+1%)	7mo	$227,000	$173	52
62 Chadduck Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,240 (-4%)	2mo	$155,000	$125	52
88 Progressive Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,257 (-3%)	6mo	$170,000	$135	49
502 W Hazeltine Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,481 (+14%)	1mo	$248,000	$167	48
61 Mayer Ave	0.68mi	4/1.0	1,408 (+9%)	7mo	$210,000	$149	48
330 W Hazeltine Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (+9%)	5mo	$222,000	$158	46
136 Newfield St	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,198 (-7%)	2mo	$167,000	$139	45
90 Newfield St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-7%)	7mo	$200,000	$167	44
133 Mayer Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (-12%)	6mo	$195,000	$172	42
145 Hoover Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,143 (-12%)	2mo	$155,000	$136	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-26,019
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $17,975
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $560/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,636

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $78	+0% $16	+5% $-47	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-50	+0% $16	+5% $81	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $72	base $16	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
480 W Hazeltine Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	989	$1,900	$1.92	25d	1	0.49mi
118 Rano St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	23d	1	0.64mi
72 Reservation St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	25d	1	0.70mi
62 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,250	$0.95	25d	1	0.89mi
2522 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,625	$1.41	3d	1	0.90mi
2514 Delaware Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1620	$1,650	$1.02	3d	1	0.90mi
158 Chadduck Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	25d	1	0.91mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	3d	1	0.97mi
244 Hartwell Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	4d	1	1.00mi
139 Fordham Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,700	$1.17	25d	1	1.02mi
172 Tremont Ave Kenmore, NY	3.0	1.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	12d	1	1.08mi
15 Ontario St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	3d	1	1.09mi
77 Lovering Ave #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,895	$1.31	45d	1	1.23mi
140 Commonwealth Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$3,500	$2.80	45d	1	1.28mi
88 Commonwealth Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1355	$1,695	$1.25	21d	1	1.30mi
79 Commonwealth Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	25d	1	1.34mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	25d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2023-12-27
   status Pending
2. 2023-07-05
   soldstatus $218,000
3. 2023-05-09
   status Pending Sale
4. 2023-04-20
   listed $220,000 Active
5. 2018-09-18
   soldstatus $113,000 Closed Sale or Rented 467-char remark

   Show marketing remark (467 chars)

   Owners pride shows with this well maintained Cape Cod home! Incredible mechanics in this house: updated triple pane windows throughout lower level, roof 2012 (under 30 yr warranty), hot water tank 2010, new plumbing 2017, new sewer lines 2016, exterior professionally painted 2017, and so much more! House features 4 bedrooms, a spacious eat-in kitchen with ample storage. Large back yard with covered patio, great for outdoor gatherings. Don’t miss this one!

6. 2018-09-13
   soldstatus $113,000
7. 2018-07-16
   status Pending Sale 467-char remark

   Show marketing remark (467 chars)

   Owners pride shows with this well maintained Cape Cod home! Incredible mechanics in this house: updated triple pane windows throughout lower level, roof 2012 (under 30 yr warranty), hot water tank 2010, new plumbing 2017, new sewer lines 2016, exterior professionally painted 2017, and so much more! House features 4 bedrooms, a spacious eat-in kitchen with ample storage. Large back yard with covered patio, great for outdoor gatherings. Don’t miss this one!

8. 2018-07-13
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 467-char remark

   Show marketing remark (467 chars)

   Owners pride shows with this well maintained Cape Cod home! Incredible mechanics in this house: updated triple pane windows throughout lower level, roof 2012 (under 30 yr warranty), hot water tank 2010, new plumbing 2017, new sewer lines 2016, exterior professionally painted 2017, and so much more! House features 4 bedrooms, a spacious eat-in kitchen with ample storage. Large back yard with covered patio, great for outdoor gatherings. Don’t miss this one!

9. 2018-07-10
   listed $104,900 Active 467-char remark

   Show marketing remark (467 chars)

   Owners pride shows with this well maintained Cape Cod home! Incredible mechanics in this house: updated triple pane windows throughout lower level, roof 2012 (under 30 yr warranty), hot water tank 2010, new plumbing 2017, new sewer lines 2016, exterior professionally painted 2017, and so much more! House features 4 bedrooms, a spacious eat-in kitchen with ample storage. Large back yard with covered patio, great for outdoor gatherings. Don’t miss this one!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $560 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,139 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,579/yr (+$132/mo · 281.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$560
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$887
• After-tax cash flow: $1,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+107.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $218,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-04-20 Listed $220,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-09-18 Sold (MLS) $113,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-16 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-07-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-07-10 Listed $104,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $560 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.