254 W Leafland Ave · Decatur, IL 62522

$19,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 700 sqft · Other public records · 206 Days on market

Built 1929 3,049 sqft lot $28/sqft · 38% above area Est $29k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! Conveniently located near shopping and restaurants in the heart of Decatur this 4 bedroom, 2 bath two story home is waiting for you to restore the beauty that once was! Sold as is. Check out this fantastic opportunity today!

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1929

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $804 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.8% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $20k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $17,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 173.21%
• DSCR: 8.71
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $28,776
• List price: $19,900
• Delta: -30.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.62×
• Total profit: $48,037
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.37×
• Total profit: $107,942
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62522

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $804

Break-even live

Break-even rent $214

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $816	-5% $810	+0% $804	+5% $799	+10% $793
Rent	-10% $707	-5% $756	+0% $804	+5% $853	+10% $902
Rate	-1.0pp $814	-0.5pp $809	base $804	+0.5pp $799	+1.0pp $794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $19,900 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,900 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,900 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,900 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,900 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $19,900 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,900 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $19,900 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,900 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $19,900 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $19,900 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $19,900 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,900 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,900 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,900 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $19,900 Active 186 DOM
17. 2025-12-01
    listed $19,900 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Investor special! Conveniently located near shopping and restaurants in the heart of Decatur this 4 bedroom, 2 bath two story home is waiting for you to restore the beauty that once was! Sold as is. Check out this fantastic opportunity today!

18. 2025-11-25
    listed $19,900 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Investor special! Conveniently located near shopping and restaurants in the heart of Decatur this 4 bedroom, 2 bath two story home is waiting for you to restore the beauty that once was! Sold as is. Check out this fantastic opportunity today!

19. 2024-02-05
    soldstatus $10,000 Closed
20. 2024-01-10
    status Pending
21. 2023-07-24
    listed $10,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $675 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $675 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $9,949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,388
• After-tax cash flow: $7,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur SD 61
• NCES district ID: 1711850
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,864
• Composite: 3.99/100
• National rank: #10059
• State rank: #605 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, IL
• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 15,185
• Household income: $50,669
• Rent vs Own: 38.5% rent · 61.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.64%
• Current HPI: 180.7847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+99.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Listed $19,900 CIBR
• 2025-11-25 Listed $19,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-05 Sold (MLS) $10,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-10 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-24 Listed $10,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $675 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.