15106 E Vermillion Cir NE · Ham Lake, MN 55304

$399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1978 0.78 ac lot $338/sqft · 103% above area Est $301k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One-of-a-kind stunner, this home is the perfect mix of gorgeous updating while oozing character and charm. Situated on a park-like 0.78 Acre private lot, this Spanish Colonial Revival checks all boxes. .. vaulted ceilings with exposed beams, original fixtures and hardware, wrought-iron railings, etc. The kitchen has been thoughtfully updated with custom soft-closed cabinets, quartz counters, SS appliances, and a custom backsplash. Solid wood doors and trim throughout, with a gorgeous and rich finish. Main level features 2 generous bedrooms, with the primary acting as a jack-and-jill to a partially private full bathroom. This bathroom has been fully renovated with beautiful tile floor and sh

Key facts

• 0.78 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Mortgage type: Other

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 4-car garage (approx. 24x24)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system with tank and drainage field (compliant); Electric service with circuit breakers; Natural gas; Power provided by Xcel Energy
• Home design: Residential property; Four-or-more level split; Above-grade finished living area and main level finished area present; Other structure: garage(s)
• Construction: Block construction; Block foundation; Roof replaced or age 8 years or less
• Exterior features: Glass-enclosed rear porch / sun room; Rear porch; Chain link fenced yard; Tree coverage - medium; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen window
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total; Upper-level bedrooms include two bedrooms; Lower-level bedrooms include two bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Full primary bathroom; Upper-level full bathroom; Jack & Jill full bathroom; 3/4 bathroom in basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Renovated and rehabbed; Vaulted ceilings; Natural woodwork; Kitchen window; Sun room; Separate/formal dining room; Glass-enclosed rear porch; Chain link fencing; One fireplace (brick, located in amusement room)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in basement; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-558 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (38.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.9% in Ham Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#358 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Elementary (math 76% / reading 69%, grade A, #47 of 857 statewide, top 6%, 584 students, 20% FRL); Roosevelt Middle (math 46% / reading 61%, grade C+, #51 of 258 statewide, top 20%, 809 students, 30% FRL); Blaine High School (math 46% / reading 67%, grade C, #77 of 471 statewide, top 17%, 2,969 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 395 active listings in the ZIP; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $238k; list at $400k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $245,041 (38.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.98%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,620
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: 33.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-100,440
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-133,710
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55304

• Active inventory: 395
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,755/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,156

Max offer price $301,409

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-331	-5% $-444	+0% $-558	+5% $-671	+10% $-784
Rent	-10% $-751	-5% $-654	+0% $-558	+5% $-461	+10% $-364
Rate	-1.0pp $-356	-0.5pp $-456	base $-558	+0.5pp $-661	+1.0pp $-767

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $399,900 Active 1320-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   historical $399,900 1320-char remark
3. 2026-03-13
   soldstatus $238,000
4. 2025-12-12
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,755 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,617 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: +$862/yr (+$72/mo · 31.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$2,755
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$14,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,381
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

Livability — Ham Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #8400

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ham Lake, MN
• Population (ZIP): 49,452

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.68%
• Current HPI: 242.7122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+299.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $399,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Coming Soon $399,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $238,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,755 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.